Rasmussen…
What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Voters are clear that the economy is the most important issue in this
year’s presidential campaign, but right now “legitimate rape” and a
plan to reform Medicare seem to be dominating much of the media
coverage.
Short- and long-term confidence in the nation’s economy continues to hover around lows for the year.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of homeowners believe the value of their home
will go down over the next year. One-in-four (24%) think the
value of their home will go down even further over the next five years.
Fewer than half (47%) believe their home is worth more than what they
still owe on the mortgage.
Twenty-six percent (26%) say their home is worth less now than when they bought it.
Just 14% of consumers rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, a
view shared by just as many (13%) investors. Fifty-two percent (52%) of
consumers rate the economy as poor, as do 53% of investors.
The COUNTRY Financial Security Index® provided the one piece of good
economic news this week: Americans are feeling better about their
finances this month than one year ago when their confidence hit an
all-time low.
Voters continue to view tax and government spending cuts as beneficial
to the economy. They remain closely divided over whether the
government will do too much or too little to help the troubled economy.
But even those who want the government to do more are evenly divided
between those who want government to cut spending and those who want
more government spending.
Yet most voters don’t expect spending cuts no matter which candidate
wins the White House and which party wins control of Congress.
No wonder then that both candidates are having a hard time connecting
with voters, Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest syndicated newspaper
column. “Neither man at the top of the ticket has proven adept at
connecting with working-class voters who hold the key to this
election,” he says. “Voters want a president who will focus on making
the government work for America rather than forcing America to work for
the government.”
Still, Republicans have the voter edge on the economy as they head into
their national convention this coming week, Scott explains in a new
radio update. (Listen to Scott’s radio updates three times daily Monday
through Friday on a radio station in your area, courtesy of the WOR
Radio Network.) But what are the politicians talking about instead?
Democrats hope to make inroads in the senior vote by raising concerns
about the Medicare reform proposal made by Mitt Romney’s
running mate Paul Ryan. But most seniors are more fearful of President
Obama’s health care law than they are of Ryan’s plan. These findings
parallel results among seniors in several key states we’ve polled in
the last few days.
Most voters, by the way, still want to repeal the health care law,
although there doesn’t seem to be too much discussion of that issue on
the hustings either.
Perhaps the biggest political news of the week was Missouri Republican
Senate candidate Todd Akin’s statement in a television interview that
in cases of “legitimate rape,” women’s reproductive systems shut down
to prevent pregnancy. Democrats and the media quickly seized on the
comment to ridicule and attack Akin, and the resulting uproar prompted
Romney and other leading Republicans to call for Akin to step down as
the party’s Senate candidate in Missouri. So far he has refused to do
so.
Akin who was leading embattled Democrat Claire McCaskill in late July
is now trailing her 48% to 38% in Missouri's U.S. Senate race. A
seat that had once been leaning in the Republican direction has shifted
to Safe Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power
rankings.
At the same time, Romney’s lead in Missouri has vanished. Obama
now earns 47% support to Romney’s 46%. At the end of July, it was
Romney by six, and he has been ahead in Missouri all year. Missouri now
moves from Leans Romney to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral
College Projections.
The critical battleground state of Virginia remains a Toss-Up, with the
president and Romney each earning 47% of the vote there now.
In the no surprise department, Obama is well ahead in Connecticut and
New Mexico, while Montana remains Romney country all the way.
While the two contenders still run neck-and-neck in the daily
Presidential Tracking Poll, the president now leads in states
with 247 Electoral College votes, while Romney is ahead in states with
196. Seven states with a total of 75 Electoral College votes are rated
Toss-Ups.
Ever since the president’s “You didn’t build that” comment, the Obama
campaign has fought back against the perception that he values
government workers more than small business owners. Regardless of
whether the comments were taken out of context or reflect his true
beliefs, the president trails badly among the nation’s entrepreneurs.
But he’s well ahead among government employees.
Voters are evenly divided as to whether Ryan or Joe Biden is better
qualified to serve as president. Not surprisingly, there’s a huge
partisan divide on the issue.
The race for Virginia’s open U.S. Senate seat remains one of the
tightest of the year, with Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim
Kaine each drawing 45% of the vote. This race is rated a Toss-Up in the
Rasmussen Reports’ Senate Balance of Power projections.
Also rated a Toss-Up is the Senate contest in Connecticut for the seat
being vacated by long-time Democrat-turned-independent Joe Lieberman.
Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon holds a narrow 49% to 46%
lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy.
Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg continues to hold a modest lead –
47% to 43% - over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester in Montana’s U.S.
Senate race. This race also remains a Toss-Up.
Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich receives his highest level of
support yet against former Congresswoman Heather Wilson in New Mexico’s
U.S. Senate race. Heinrich is ahead 48% to 41%. The latest numbers
shift the race from a Toss-Up to Leans Democrat.
Elections for 33 U.S. Senate seats will be held in November. When the
dust settles, Rasmussen Reports projects that the GOP and the Democrats
can each count on 47 seats while six are Toss-Ups.
Republicans still hold a modest lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have virtually every week since June 2009.
Then there’s the forgotten war, an issue that virtually never comes up
on the campaign trail. The death toll for U.S. troops in Afghanistan
passed the 2,000 mark earlier this month, and voters are more
pessimistic than ever about the country’s involvement there. Forty-one
percent (41%) believe things will get worse in Afghanistan over the
next six months. Still, voters tend to believe the United States and
its allies are winning the War on Terror.
Read the rest of
the report at Rasmussen
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