|
The
Hill...
Now comes hard part for Boehner as run of Republican unity ends
By Russell Berman
Now comes the hard part for Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).
In the first month of the 112th Congress, the new House Republican
majority voted unanimously to repeal President Obama’s healthcare law,
cut congressional budgets and set the stage for spending showdowns that
will dominate the spring.
But that run of GOP unity is about to end. Boehner faces a defining
moment in his Speakership as he and his lieutenants navigate a trio of
major bills: a short-term measure to fund the government, the
longer-term budget blueprint, and legislation raising the federal debt
ceiling beyond its present $14.3 trillion limit.
“We have to work our will in the House. We have to work with our
colleagues in the Senate and put something on the president’s desk,”
Boehner said last week.
Perhaps no issue will test Boehner as much as authorizing more debt,
which pits the harsh reality of governance against the core promise
that 87 House Republican freshmen made to their constituents: We will
stop borrowing money we don’t have.
“Here’s the hard reality for us: There are no simple answers to this,”
said freshman Rep. James Lankford (R-Okla.).
There are no simple political answers for Boehner either. He has to win
big spending cuts if he is to retain the confidence of his conference
and the allegiance of the voters who entrusted him with the Speaker’s
gavel. He must be fiscally aggressive without appearing reckless, while
being practical and level headed without seeming to sell out to Beltway
assumptions that voters clearly rejected. Finally, he must lead his
conference’s rank-and-file, not follow them, and ensure that they do
not walk away from him.
Whether there are answers or not, the fiscal reckoning looms ever
larger as the debt ticks up toward the current ceiling, which the
Treasury expects to reach as early as the beginning of April.
Increasing the debt ceiling has become a routine congressional
action in the last quarter-century as the federal debt has risen to
staggering new heights. Since 1985, Congress has lifted the ceiling
more than 30 times.
The politics of the issue have grown more perilous with each passing
year, and no House Republican has voted to raise the debt ceiling since
October 2008, when the action was paired with the equally unpopular
Troubled Asset Relief Program.
THE STAKES
At stake, simply put, is the full faith and credit of the United States
government. Congress has never failed to raise the debt ceiling, and
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned in dire terms that a
first-ever default would have “catastrophic” economic consequences.
Interest rates would “rise sharply,” he warned. Home values would fall.
The dollar would be weakened. The federal government would begin to
stop payments on everything from military salaries to Social Security
and Medicare benefits.
Conservatives decried Geithner’s letter as overly dramatic, even
apocalyptic. The Treasury Department has a number of tools, which
Geithner acknowledged, that could prevent an immediate default and buy
at least a few weeks.
“Then we’re in uncharted territory,” said William Gale, an economist
and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Boehner’s public rhetoric illustrates his precarious balance. On
the one hand, the Speaker has said Republicans would not vote for an
increase unless it is coupled with “serious reductions in spending” and
budget controls.
At the same time, he joined Geithner in cautioning against
default. He famously described the debt-ceiling vote as an “adult
moment” for the GOP last fall, and last week said that failing to act
was not an option.
“That would be a financial disaster not only for our country, but for
the worldwide economy,” Boehner said on “Fox News Sunday.” “Remember,
the American people on Election Day said we want to cut spending and we
want to create jobs. You can’t create jobs if you default on the
federal debt.”
THE CONSERVATIVES
Yet that sentiment is where the divisions in the House Republican
Conference begin. The conservative Republican Study Committee, which
boasts a membership that comprises two-thirds of the Republican
Conference, is pushing a bill that would forestall a “must pass” vote
in Congress by giving the Treasury Department added authority to
prioritize debt payments and prevent a full default if the ceiling were
reached.
The legislation “assures lenders that their investments in the United
States government are entirely safe,” said Rep. Tom McClintock
(R-Calif.), the lead House sponsor. “Congress will still have to deal
with the issue of the debt limit. It simply takes a default off the
table.”
Geithner has called the legislation, originally authored by Sen. Pat
Toomey (R-Pa.), “unworkable” and potentially “quite harmful.”
Boehner has ignored the proposal, and GOP leadership aides are
privately dismissive of it. One staffer said the bill would give
“unprecedented power to the White House and the Treasury Department to
pick who’s going to get paid.”
Since the November election, a handful of Republicans, most notably the
conservative firebrand Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, have voiced
outright opposition to lifting the limit, regardless of the spending
cuts attached.
Bachmann’s Tea Party Caucus will hold its first meeting of the new
Congress Feb. 17, and the debt ceiling will be at the top of the agenda.
Exactly how many “no” votes Boehner is starting with remains unclear.
“It’s not three people, I can tell you that. It’s not some tiny
insignificant group,” Lankford said.
THE DEMOCRATS
Complicating Boehner’s challenge is the expectation that
Democrats will withhold their votes for any debt-ceiling bill that is
paired with deep spending cuts.
House Democrats’ point man for the budget, Rep. Chris Van Hollen
of Maryland, said, “I think it’s a big mistake to threaten the fragile
economic recovery by playing politics with the full faith and credit of
the United States government.”
Like the tax-cut deal during the lame-duck session, the debt
ceiling debate could open up a rift between the Obama administration
and Democrats on Capitol Hill.
THE FRESHMEN
The brightest spotlight will be on the Republican newcomers, many of
whom will have to reconcile their no-compromise tone on the campaign
trail with the predictable pressures of governing in the majority.
“If there is a vote put forward to increase the national debt ceiling
and that is all the legislation does, I think it will fail
overwhelmingly,” said Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), the president of the
freshman class and a representative on the House leadership team.
“I did not come to Congress to increase debt. That’s not why I came,”
Lankford said.
Lankford advocates a proposal that has won support from other
Republicans — to attach a “hard spending cap” to the debt-ceiling
increase.
House GOP leaders say the plan for the debt-ceiling bill will depend on
what kind of cuts are achieved through the short-term funding measure
and, possibly, the 2012 budget. “These are all interrelated,” a
leadership aide said.
Boehner’s office declined to discuss specific proposals. “That’s a
discussion our members will have with each other and the American
people over the coming weeks,” spokesman Michael Steel said.
While freshmen like Scott and Lankford are keeping the pressure on
Boehner to exact significant cuts in exchange for their vote, other
Republicans are giving the new Speaker more leeway.
Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), one of three first-term Republicans named
to the Appropriations Committee, said, “I realize I’ve only been here a
month, but I’ve got a lot of confidence in our leadership.”
Peter Schroeder, Michael M. Gleeson and Erik Wasson contributed to this
article.
Read it at The Hill
|
|
|
|
