Dick
Morris...
The Debate Inside the
Republican Debate
Published on DickMorris.com on June 13, 2011
Posted 6/15/11
Dear Friend,
To help understand the debate (June 13), let’s review the debates
within the debate that will be taking place:
The Tea Party Debate: Bachmann vs. Cain
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman
Cain are rivals for the affection of Tea Party and evangelical
voters. Each boasts a charismatic style and a focus on hot button
issues. They will vie for the support of the GOP grass roots so
as to mount a challenge to front runner Mitt Romney. Bachmann
will use her key role in pushing spending cuts in Washington to rally
fiscal conservatives while Cain will tout his outsider status - the
only candidate never to have been in Washington - to rally backing.
Bachmann and Cain vs. Palin
Just because Sarah Palin will not be at the debate as a candidate,
doesn’t mean she won’t attend as a ghost! The former Republican
vice presidential nominee will be closely watching how Bachmann and
Cain do at appealing to her own political base as she weighs whether or
not to jump into the race. With Gingrich struggling and Huckabee
out, the odds of a Palin candidacy have improved. For their
parts, Bachmann and Cain will try to fill the vacuum themselves so that
the former Alaska Governor stays out of the contest.
Gingrich vs. Himself
Newt has to use this debate to regain the ground he lost with his shaky
announcement week and the recent resignation of virtually his entire
staff. He has to excel at the medium designed for him: a
candidate debate.
Newt’s most significant asset is his ability as a debater. He
must shine to overcome his missteps and stay relevant to the race.
Romney vs. Expectations
Eventually, the nomination race will probably boil down to Mitt Romney
vs. one other candidate. So far Romney has climbed to the
nomination by stepping over the corpses of candidates who already have
dropped out, might drop out, and likely won’t run: Mike Huckabee,
Donald Trump, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Sarah Palin, and Newt
Gingrich.
But in the debate, Romney must stand alone against the rest of the
field and prove that he deserves to tower over them. He has to
earn his first round bye with a solid performance. He needs to
shed the flip flop image of the past, get over the opposition his
Romneycare law in Massachusetts arouses among the base, and show the
kind of Reagan-esque presidentiality he has displayed on the stump
lately.
Pawlenty vs. The Ghost of Mitch Daniels
Another ghost will be at the debate - Indiana Governor Mitch
Daniels. Before he abruptly dropped out of the race (after most
assumed he would run), Daniels had co-opted most of the political
running room former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty had hoped to occupy
himself. Daniels’ skill in pushing labor relations reforms in
Indiana and advancing an education reform agenda had captured the
enthusiasm of much of the Republican establishment. These
honchos, who would have backed either Jeb Bush or New Jersey Governor
Chris Christie, were set to rally to Daniels.
But with Mitch out, Pawlenty has had trouble occupying the vacated
slot. His Minnesota record wasn’t nearly as good as that of Bush
in Florida, Christie in New Jersey, and Daniels in Indiana and his
personal style lacks the flamboyance of a Christie. Pawlenty has to
kindle enthusiasm or risk losing his slot to another governor - like
Rick Perry of Texas - or another Minnesotan (read Iowa neighbor) like
Bachmann.
Santorum and Huntsman to Get Noticed
Neither former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum nor ex-Utah Governor
Huntsman has gotten much attention yet. They need to use the
debate to shine and attract their share of voter support. Like
Mike Huckabee did in 2008, these early debates can offer candidates a
chance to shine and move up in the standings.
Ron Paul vs. Common Sense
I don’t like Ron Paul. At all. I don’t agree that we should
legalize drugs or suspend the war on terror. Paul’s nutty
positions consign him to the real fringe of our politics. But
there are plenty of voters out there on the fringe and this debate is
his chance to harvest a bunch of them.
Thanks,
Dick Morris
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