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Townhall
GOP Has Trouble
Settling on Candidates Who Can Win
by Michael Barone
Feb 21, 2013
One of the interesting things about recent elections is that
Republicans have tended to do better the farther you go down the ballot.
They've lost the presidency twice in a row, and in four of the last six
contests. They've failed to win a majority in the U.S. Senate,
something they accomplished in five election cycles between 1994 and
2006.
But they have won control of the House of Representatives in the last
two elections, and in eight of the last 10 cycles.
And they've been doing better in elections to state legislatures than
at any time since the 1920s.
One reason for this is that, as I have written, Democratic voters are
clustered in large metropolitan areas, which helps them in the
Electoral College but hurts in legislatures with equal-population
districts.
But there's another reason, which has been particularly glaring in
races for the U.S. Senate: candidate quality.
Over the years, I've noticed that Democrats tend to have a
disproportionate share of candidates with sharp political instincts and
ambition.
Probably that's natural. Democrats tend to want more government, and
smart Democrats like to go into politics. Smart Republicans tend to
take other paths.
This helped Democrats maintain congressional majorities and big margins
in state legislatures when Republicans were sweeping five of six
presidential elections from 1968 to 1988.
They lost that edge in candidate quality in the 1990s, but they seemed
to regain it in the later Bush years.
That's the main reason why Democrats have a 55-45 majority in the
Senate after the very Republican election cycle of 2010 and a 2012
cycle in which 23 Democratic and only 10 Republican seats were up for
grabs.
It's generally agreed that Republicans booted sure Senate wins in 2010
in Nevada and Delaware and perhaps Colorado.
Foolish statements about abortion and rape cost Republicans wins in
Indiana and Missouri in 2012. They also lost two very winnable races in
North Dakota and Montana and two races in which former officeholders
fell just short in Wisconsin and Virginia.
Read the rest of the article at Townhall
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