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The Hill
13 Republicans
most likely to win WH
By Jonathan Easley
Republicans say their long list of 2016 hopefuls is among the deepest,
most diverse group in recent history without a clear frontrunner.
“This is the most open field we’ve ever seen,” one GOP strategist told
The Hill.
That means there will be a narrow path to victory for many of the
candidates, as they fight for the money, media, and voters they’ll need
in the win-early-or-go-home battle royale.
The Hill spoke to more than a half-dozen Republican strategists to find
out where the top names currently rank. Here’s their take.
THE BIG THREE
These candidates will leverage strong donor bases and have the most
potential to bridge the establishment vs. conservative gap.
Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.)
Paul would not have been in the top tier just a few months ago, but
since then he’s become a media sensation. He’s as comfortable bashing
the president for his immigration executive actions on Fox News as he
is joking about pot with Bill Maher on HBO’s “Real Time.”
In addition to inheriting his father’s campaign infrastructure, he’s
moved early and aggressively to build his own from Silicon Valley to
Washington.
Paul’s Libertarian streak could appeal to young voters who have tilted
Democratic in recent years. And out of the top tier of establishment
contenders, he has the best chance of winning the Iowa caucuses, which
would make him the unquestioned frontrunner.
“Paul supporters always do more with less,” one strategist said. But it
doesn’t look like he’ll have to this time around.
Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.)
Christie “thinks on his feet and returns fire,” one strategist said.
“Republicans love that.”
He already has a lock on the New York-New Jersey fundraising network,
and his success as chairman of the Republican Governors Association has
boosted him nationally.
But Christie will need to focus on the New Hampshire primary right away
because conservative voters in Iowa and South Carolina aren’t likely to
give him an early boost.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.)
With the best name ID and access to his family’s deep political and
fundraising lines, Bush would loom large over the field if he does run.
But strategists question whether he wants it bad enough to go through
the grinder.
“There are lots of differences between him and his brother, but one of
them is that George loved to campaign and Jeb does not like it,” one
Republican said. “Jeb can disarm Wolf Blitzer in an interview, but I’m
not sure he’s interested in handling 100,000 screaming Ted Cruz fans.”
THE CONSERVATIVE GUNNERS
The 2012 Republican field was roiled by conservative upstarts, but
those driving the conversation to the right this time around will be
more polished and better funded.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.)
“If he’s in the field, the calculations change completely,” one
strategist said. “He’s the biggest draw among conservatives who turn
out in primaries.”
That’s a big if, because Huckabee enjoys a comfortable life right now
hosting a popular weekend show on Fox News. But if he were inclined to
leave that behind, strategists say he could do even better than he did
in 2008 because he’d be able to raise money, already has a network, and
is a known commodity.
“He can’t be underestimated,” another strategist said. “His folksy
appeal and blue collar appeal is very strong, certainly in Iowa. He’s
also very well known, so he starts out ahead of the pack there, and he
can rally evangelicals like no other candidate. It’s stunning how
devoted his followers are.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)
Cruz’s brand of unabashed conservatism will play well on the campaign
trail in the critical early voting states. He seems to relish the
attacks against him, especially those who try to portray him as a
far-right extremist.
Those attributes will keep the fundraising dollars rolling in and will
produce strong turnout for his events especially in states like Iowa
and South Carolina.
But if Huckabee is in the race, strategists wonder if there’s enough
oxygen in the room for both.
THE SECOND TIER
In any other year, these two might be near the top of the list but each
has a glaring issue that knocks them down a peg.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.)
NEEDS AN IOWA MIRACLE
Gov. Rick Perry (Texas)
Dr. Ben Carson
WAITING IN THE WINGS
Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (La.)
Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio)
Gov. John Kasich (Ohio)
See what The Hill has to say about the rest of the noted candidates here
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