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The Daily Signal
Hold the Applause: No Iran Deal Yet
James Phillips
April 02, 2015

After missing its self-imposed negotiating deadline for the third time, the Obama administration announced Thursday an agreement in principle with an Iranian regime that has no principles, except to expand its power and export its revolution.

“I am convinced if this framework leads to a final, comprehensive deal, it will make our country, our allies, our world safer,” President Obama said from the Rose Garden at the White House.

But attaining an acceptable final deal will be extremely difficult. The thorniest issues remain unresolved, including the timing of sanctions relief and how much research Tehran will be allowed to conduct on uranium enrichment and advanced centrifuges.

Iran’s long history of violating its previous nuclear agreements remains the elephant in the room. Obama stressed that the deal includes “unprecedented verification.”

“If Iran cheats the world will know it,” he said. But how long will it take to find out and will the world do anything about it after it has discovered cheating?

Look at Syria, where the Obama administration trumpeted its 2013 agreement to destroy all of the Assad regime’s chemical weapons. Yet today, that regime continues to use chlorine gas against its own people, with little fear of the consequences.

The administration has sought to ease anxieties about verifying Iranian compliance by stressing the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was able to block, deflect and stall U.N. inspectors for years after signing a 1991 cease-fire agreement that included robust provisions for inspections.

Another potential problem is that it is not clear that Iran will be required to come clean on the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program before a final deal is signed.

This is vital, because otherwise the U.S. will not be able to establish a baseline for the Iranian program that could serve as a reliable basis for estimating how long it would take Iran to stage a nuclear breakout—acquire enough weapons-grade fissile material to arm a nuclear weapon.

Moreover, if Iran does not come clean on its past violations of its nuclear commitments, how can it be trusted to comply with any new commitments?

While the administration will spin the agreement as a signal that the Iranians are acting more reasonably, Tehran will see the deal as acceptance in the West of its policies and behavior. There is danger that Iran will be emboldened to escalate its destabilizing behavior in the region, not reduce it. And the more sanctions relief Iran gains, the more cash it will have to finance terrorism and other subversive activities.

No wonder Iranian officials are celebrating the announcement of the deal as a major victory.

Read the details of the agreement over Iran’s nuclear program...

Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.

Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.
 
Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.
 
Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.
 
Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to  by the P5+1.
 
For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.

Inspections and Transparency
 
The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies.
 
Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program.
 
Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
 
Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows  production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will  be frozen and under continuous surveillance.
 
All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
 
A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure.
 
Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
 
Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country.
 
Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities.
 
Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.

Reactors and Reprocessing
 
Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium, and which will support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production.
 
The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
 
Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime.
 
Iran has committed indefinitely to not conduct reprocessing or reprocessing research and development on spent nuclear fuel.
 
Iran will not accumulate heavy water in excess of the needs of the modified Arak reactor, and will sell any remaining heavy water on the international market for 15 years.
 
Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years.

Sanctions
 
Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
 
U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.

The architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance.
 
All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
 
However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and  ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution.
 
A dispute resolution process will be specified, which enables any JCPOA participant, to seek to resolve disagreements about the performance of JCPOA commitments.
 
If an issue of significant non-performance cannot be resolved through that process, then all previous UN sanctions could be re-imposed.
 
U.S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.
Phasing
 
For ten years, Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development  – ensuring a breakout timeline of at least one year. Beyond that, Iran will be bound by its longer-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan it shared with the P5+1.
 
For fifteen years, Iran will limit additional elements of its program. For instance, Iran will not build new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors and will limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and accept enhanced transparency procedures.
 
Important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years. Iran’s adherence to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA is permanent, including its significant access and transparency obligations. The robust inspections of Iran’s uranium supply chain will last for 25 years.
 
Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran’s development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program.

Read this and other articles at The Daily Signal



 
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