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MSN
Paul Ryan notches a big victory, but the true test may come next year
Mike DeBonis, Paul Kane
The Washington Post

The House is expected to pass a $1.1 trillion spending bill Friday that will remove any threat of a government shutdown, keep the government funded into the fall of 2016, and notch a signature win for new House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.)

The bill will pass despite the possibility that a majority of Republicans will vote against it — just as they voted against fiscal deals negotiated by Ryan’s often-besieged predecessor, John A. Boehner (R-Ohio).

But there has been a distinct change in tone for the House GOP under Ryan. The negotiations over the spending bill, for example, took place in much the same way and produced similar results as they did under Boehner, but with almost none of the acrimony or divisiveness that had become the hallmark of Boehner’s tenure.

But as Boehner’s torment has morphed into Ryan’s triumph, one big question facing House Republicans is whether Ryan’s speakership will fundamentally change the way the party functions or whether the speaker is just enjoying a post-Boehner honeymoon.

“There are people who are willing to take a risk with him, willing to jump,” Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said. “I like Boehner, obviously, but he had gotten toxic, and I think it became easier for people to say no to him.”

The conservatives who balked at Boehner’s top-down leadership style say Ryan has sent the right signals, even if the final product of the spending talks isn’t any more palatable to them than what Boehner might have negotiated. At its core, the deal that is expected to be approved this week is one essentially set in motion by Boehner.

While Republicans were able to extract an end to the 40-year-old ban on exports of U.S. crude oil, they failed to secure significant curbs on Obama administration policy initiatives, including labor, financial and environmental regulations. And Republicans were unable to add new restrictions on abortions.

Conservatives credit Ryan with moving to open the appropriations process in the immediate aftermath of the budget deal negotiated by Boehner in his final days, an accord that lifted spending caps that many Republicans wanted to maintain.

Pressed about the difference under Ryan, rank-and-file lawmakers could not point to specific changes made by the new speaker. His reforms to an internal group that doles out committee assignments were cosmetic, at best, and his early decision to have a wide-open amendment process on a massive highway funding bill has been followed by mostly closed consideration of legislation that needs to pass quickly.

On the Boehner vs. Ryan question, House Republicans tend to split into two camps; those who say they trust Ryan more than Boehner, and those who are giving him the early benefit of the doubt. The latter group has decided to rally around the new leader, saying that the real verdict on his leadership will come next year...

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