OSU Extension Darke County
Soybean Harvest Losses and Beef and Dairy Outlooks
By Sam Custer, Extension Educator 

Laura Lindsley, OSU Extension Specialist, reports the extreme weather conditions this growing season are affecting soybean harvest.  Soybean plants are shorter than normal resulting in pods that are closer to the ground.  Additionally, some Ohio growers are also noticing soybean pod shattering during harvest.  Shattering is more likely to occur when pods are formed under drought conditions and re-wet later in the season.  Short plants and shattering pods can increase harvest losses.  We’re not sure if the soybean losses shown in the picture are from short plants, shattering, harvest equipment, or all three.  However, four soybean seeds per square foot is approximately one bushel per acre yield loss.  In the picture, there are approximately 8 to 12 seeds per square foot (a 2 to 3 bushel per acre loss).  Little can be done to prevent soybeans from shattering, but Iowa State University Extension offers some advice for harvesting shorter than normal soybeans at:  http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2012/0808hanna.htm 

Beef Update 

The OSU Beef Newsletter reports that last spring most producers had higher price expectations than current levels, but also realize that it could be worse. Even after the Lean Fine Textured Beef media fiasco, a case of BSE, and the worst drought in the Corn Belt since 1988 and higher than expected corn prices; calf prices are still record high for this time of the year. Compare that to feeder pig and feeder lamb prices that are not only below last year, but also below the past 5-year average for this time of the year. 

Producers also remember last year when calf prices increased contra seasonally from the second week in October through the end of the year. They are wondering if that could happen again. Recall that last year December corn futures fell about $2 per bushel from early September into October, and in December were at the lowest levels since the spring of 2011. And December live cattle futures rallied $8 per hundredweight from the end of September until the end of December. 

This year, December corn futures did decline about $1 in September which was supportive to calf prices. But the USDA-NASS Grain Stocks report released on September 28 reported corn stocks in the U.S. on September 1, 2012, at 988 million bushels. That number was down 12% from last year and lower than the trade estimate of about 1.126 billion bushels. December corn futures rallied 40 cents on Friday after the report. 

And December live cattle futures prices declined about $6 in September of this year as the cash market did not respond to futures market expectations. 

Even though a contra seasonal increase in calf prices of the magnitude of last year is not likely, the calf market should receive support from several factors. Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on July 1 were down about 3.2% from last year. And calves have been marketed early from areas hard hit by drought conditions. Last week's rain in parts of the Southern Plains has improved, at least temporarily, the prospects for winter wheat grazing. Also, a higher than normal amount of drought damaged corn was chopped for silage in the Western Corn Belt, but the exact amount is still unknown. Some silage will be fed to dairy cows and to help maintain beef cow herds. But some will still be available to feed calves. 

Even though calf prices are lower now than earlier expected, the potential for higher calf prices next year exists. A smaller calf crop in 2013 is likely and will be supportive to prices. However, Mother Nature will need to cooperate with much needed precipitation across the U.S. Spring seasonal highs in calf prices are dependent on spring grazing conditions. And a good corn crop will be necessary to keep corn prices from increasing. 

Dairy Update 

Dr. Normand St-Pierre, Extension Dairy Management Specialist, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University reports on the current dairy situation.

OSU uses the estimates of the nutrient costs to calculate the Cow-Jones Index (CJI) for August.  This index was constructed here at Ohio State to measure the difference between milk revenues and the costs of providing the required nutrients at a production level of 65 lb/cow/day.  The Cow-Jones is conceptually very similar to income-over-feed costs, but it is calculated without making reference to any specific diet (ration).  The reference cow used to calculate the Cow-Jones weighs 1500 lb and produces 65 lb of milk at 3.6% fat and 3.0% protein – which is about the average cow productivity in Ohio.  This cow has daily requirements of 31.3 Mcal of NEL, 4.64 lb of MP, 10.15 lb of e-NDF, and 3.38 lb of ne-NDF.  The cost of supplying these nutrients has fluctuated over the years.  Dietary energy is currently very expensive as it currently costs $6.08/day to provide the NEL required for the production of 65 lb/day.  This means that on an average, one has to pay $9.36 just to supply the NEL required to produce a hundredweight of milk.  On the protein side, it currently costs $2.31/cow/day to supply the required MP, which equates to $3.55/cwt.  The total feed costs for our standard cow is now $7.87/day, or $12.10/cwt (or about 16¢/lb of TMR dry matter).  These figures result in a Cow-Jones of $5.84/cwt, which is over $2.00/cwt less than the break-even of $8.00/cwt.  Dairy producers who are paying cash prices for their feeds are incurring severe losses. 

The fact that the nutrient costs in August amounted to over 65% of the milk revenues is very troublesome and foreshadows a very difficult financial environment if either current feed prices are maintained throughout the year or if milk prices were to fall.  Fortunately, wholesale prices for cheese, dry whey, butter, and non-fat dried milk have increased noticeably in the last 2 months.  Milk price forecasts (either using the futures markets or more conventional economics analyses) are very good for the balance of the year.  So, there might be some light at the end of this tunnel. 

Swine Education Series 

The SowBridge breeding herd education series is now accepting registrations for the 2012 - 2013 sessions. You must register by October 15, 2012 to ensure materials receipt for the first session. Contact our office for further information. 

For more information visit our web site at http://darke.osu.edu/  or contact Sam Custer at 937.548.5215.