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Rasmussen...
What They Told Us:
Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Talk, talk, talk. That’s apparently all voters expect out of
Washington, DC, because they don’t anticipate serious budget solutions
any time soon.
Just 31% of Likely Voters, in fact, think it is at least somewhat
likely that President Obama and congressional Republicans will reach an
agreement to significantly cut long-term government spending trends
before the 2012 elections. But then most voters also believe neither
side is likely to propose a serious plan to deal with federal spending
and deficit problems.
That’s despite Republican Congressman Paul Ryan’s new plan that claims
to cut $4 trillion from the federal deficit over the next decade. The
proposal has Washington, DC abuzz, but 47% of voters don’t know enough
about it to voice an opinion. Thirty-one percent (31%) accurately
believe the proposal presented by Ryan calls for major changes in
defense, Social Security and Medicare which together account for over
half of federal spending.
Ryan’s plan prompted the president to come back with a budget-cutting
proposal of his own this past week, but his plan does not include
changes in the budget-busting Medicare and Social Security programs.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now believe it is necessary to make
major changes in defense, Social Security and Medicare to make truly
significant, long-term cuts in government spending. Thirty-seven
percent (37%) don’t believe changes of this kind are necessary.
The president’s new deficit-reduction plan doesn’t even try to project
a time when the federal budget will be balanced. Ryan’s Republican
alternative puts a balanced budget at least 25 years away. No wonder
just 30% of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that the
federal budget will be balanced for even a single year during their
lifetimes. Only nine percent (9%) say it’s Very Likely. Interestingly,
voters ages 18 to 29, those who will live the longest, are even more
skeptical about the chances for a balanced budget than are those who
are older.
With unemployment claims jumping last week, signaling continued
weakness in the nation’s economy, it’s no surprise that voters still
rate the economy as the most important issue they vote on. By the same
token, voters remain worried the government will try to do too much in
response to the bad economy rather than not enough.
As far as Americans are concerned, there is at least one thing the
government could do that would help - enforcing laws against illegal
immigration. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Adults say if immigration laws
were enforced, there would be less poverty in America. That’s up from
45% four years ago.
There were more mixed signals from the economy this past week. Most
Americans (54%) continue to expect interest rates to be higher a year
from now. But they’re less likely to say they are paying higher
interest rates than they were a year ago, and fewer owe more money than
they did back then.
Confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system is up a bit this
month but still remains at discouraging levels. While 47% now are at
least somewhat confident in the stability of the U.S. banking system,
that compares to 64% in September 2008 just as the financial meltdown
on Wall Street was becoming evident.
The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes changed little over the
past week but remain down from the first of the year. A new Scott
Rasmussen analysis suggests that it is currently impossible to identify
with confidence a single factor driving consumer confidence. Given the
historic record, gas prices and the political debate over federal
spending and deficits are prime suspects. Events in the coming months
are likely to provide some additional clarity.
Speaking of upcoming events, not much has changed in the dynamics over
the past couple of months in early 2012 election polling. No matter
which of 10 Republicans is matched against the president, Obama earns
between 42% and 49% of the vote. That same dynamic was found earlier
this year and suggests the election is still shaping up as a referendum
on the president. That’s typical when an incumbent runs for reelection.
The numbers show that Mike Huckabee runs even with Obama at this point.
Mitt Romney, who just formally entered the race, trails the president
by five, 45% to 40%. Others who trail by single digits include Ron Paul
and Haley Barbour. Candidates trailing by double digits include Sarah
Palin, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Herman Cain and Jon
Huntsman.
At week’s end, there was little change in Obama’s job approval rating
as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll:
48 at least somewhat approved of the president’s performance, while 51%
disapproved.
Republicans hold a six-point lead over Democrats – 44% to 38% - on the
Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending April 10.
A majority (51%) of voters still favor repeal of the health care law,
but support for repeal has fallen to its lowest level since October.
Confidence that the law will be repealed is down to its lowest point
since the first of the year.
Confidence in America’s conduct of the war on terror has fallen to its
lowest level in four-and-a-half years. Just 32% of voters now believe
the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, the
most pessimistic assessment since October 2006.
With Japan now admitting its ongoing nuclear plant crisis is as bad as
Chernobyl, concern about radiation from that plant reaching the United
States has risen, and Americans are more worried about the overall
impact on the U.S. economy. Most voters also remain concerned about the
safety of nuclear power plants in this country, but support for
building new plants in America appears to have rebounded slightly.
Read the rest of the story with links at Rasmussen
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