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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, August 06, 2011 

Americans don’t like the debt ceiling deal he agreed to, and confidence in the economy and the future in general are low and getting lower. But most voters think President Obama has a good chance of being reelected next year anyway.  

Just 14% of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction . That’s down from 17% a week ago, 21% the week before, and 25% the week before that. It is the lowest measured since November 2, 2008, just before Obama was elected president. 

Only 32% of voters think America’s best days are in the future while just over half (51%) say the nation’s best days are in the past. 

The Rasmussen Consumer Index , which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell to a two-year low on Thursday and was just eight points above the all-time low of the post-9/11 era. The Rasmussen Investor Index, which measures daily confidence among that group, fell to a new two-year low on Saturday. And those findings were based upon interviews conducted before the U.S. credit rating was downgraded. 

Just eight percent (8%) of American adults rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 64% say it’s in poor shape. At the beginning of this calendar year, 11% said the economy was in good or excellent shape, while 50% said poor. 

The Rasmussen Employment Index , which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market each month, fell nearly eight points in July to the lowest level since March. Only 18% of working Americans now report that their firms are hiring, while 24% say their firms are laying off workers. It has been nearly three years since the number reporting that their firms are hiring has topped the number reporting layoffs. 

Thirty percent (30%) of voters describe the president’s leadership style as too confrontational , up nine points from 21% a month ago and the highest finding since March 2010 when the health care issue was front and center. 

Obama’s full-month Job Approval Index rating for July as measured for the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was down two points from June to -17. That’s his lowest full-month approval rating this year and matches the lowest findings of his presidency, reached only twice before. 

But ask voters if the president will be reelected next year, and 54% say it’s at least somewhat likely. Of course, that includes just 26% who say it is Very Likely. Forty percent (40%) say the president’s reelection is unlikely, with 18% who believe it’s Not At All Likely. 

A generic Republican candidate leads Obama by five points – 47% to 42% - in our latest hypothetical 2012 election match-up . The GOP candidate has now outpolled the president in 10 of 13 surveys conducted weekly since early May. 

The inclusion of likely candidate Rick Perry has tightened the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination dramatically, with Romney still ahead – but just barely. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds the former Massachusetts governor earning 22% support, closely followed by Perry, the Texas governor expected to enter the race soon, with 18% of the vote. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is in third place with 16%. 

Candidates will fall by the wayside as the primary battle for the GOP presidential nomination gets under way. If the race were already down to just the three top candidates, Romney would still be just slightly ahead. In a three-way race between Romney, Bachmann and Perry , Romney earns 34% of the vote. Bachmann picks up 27% support, while Perry gets 26%. 

The GOP candidates’ ranks may be thinned as early as this coming week when the Iowa State Fair straw poll begins the path to the Iowa Caucus. Scott Rasmussen will be releasing our latest findings among Iowa Republican voters tomorrow (Sunday) at 3 pm Eastern/2 pm Central on the Rasmussen Reports radio show on WMAL 630AM in Washington, DC and WLS 890AM in Chicago , two of the nation’s top news talk radio stations. The show will be streamed live online as well. 

One thing for sure: Just 37% of all GOP Primary Voters would vote for any candidate who supported the bailout of the financial industry . That’s potential bad news for Congressman Ron Paul who supported that bailout and good news for Bachmann and Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter who voted against it. 

Another vote that’s likely to come back and haunt some presidential hopefuls is the decision earlier this week to raise the federal debt ceiling . Just 22% of voters approve of the reached by the president and Congress, and most doubt it will actually reduce government spending. 

To be more precise, the president and Congress agreed to cut a trillion dollars in federal spending over the next decade as part of the deal, but most voters doubt that will actually happen. The two sides also agreed to form a special congressional committee to recommend $1.5 trillion in additional cuts by the end of the year, and if the committee fails to do that, automatic across-the-board spending cuts are supposed to go into effect, including cuts in Medicare and defense spending.  But a plurality (47%) doesn’t think Congress is likely to let these across-the-board cuts take place. 

Despite their skepticism about the deal, 52% oppose those automatic spending cuts if Congress doesn’t reach its reduction goals. 

The debt ceiling debate has highlighted the political difficulty of coming to grips with the federal government’s massive debt. Voters now are almost evenly divided over whether they prefer a congressman who would reduce that debt with spending cuts only or opt for a mix of spending cuts and tax increases . 

No matter how bad things are, 63% of voters believe Congress can always find a way to make them worse . If they could vote to keep or replace the entire Congress, 62% would vote to dump all the current legislators and start over again. 

Eighty-two percent (82%) believe members of Congress should take a 25% pay cut until the federal budget is balanced . A plurality (48%) thinks the president should take a 50% pay cut until the budget is balanced. That’s not particularly reassuring since an earlier survey found that only nine percent (9%) think it’s Very Likely the federal budget will be balanced at least one year in their lifetimes. 

Most voters also think members of Congress should be banned from lobbying for five years after they leave office . 

Republicans remain ahead on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week since June 2009. But the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans fell for the second straight month in July. For the first time since last fall, the number of Democrats in the country has topped the number of Republicans in two consecutive months. 

Read it at Rasmussen