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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, August 13, 2011 

Most Americans these days would agree with Thomas Paine’s famous declaration in 1776: “These are the times that try men’s souls.” We lack confidence in the economy, government, elections, the president, Congress, both political parties, even our military missions abroad, with little hope in sight. 

As a volatile week on Wall Street came to a close, investor confidence as measured by  the Rasmussen Investor Index fell to a two-year low. Its companion, the Rasmussen Consumer Index, finds consumer confidence just above the lowest levels of the past two years. 

Rasmussen Reports measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, and one of our standard questions is whether or not the United States is currently in a recession. According to the economists, the last recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, but most Americans believe that recession has never ended. 

Confidence among Americans in the stability of the nation’s banking industry has hit rock bottom. Just 37% are at least somewhat confident in the banking system, including six percent (6%) who are Very Confident. Prior to the latest survey, overall confidence in U.S. banks ranged from a low of 39% in February 2009 to a high of 68% in July 2008 just before the Wall Street meltdown. 

When it comes to finding work, just 13% of American Adults believe the U.S. jobs market is better than it was a year ago. Half (50%) believe it is worse. That latter figure is up 11 points from June and the highest negative finding since August 2009. 

Faced with continuing high unemployment, voters feel strongly that the government needs to launch a job-creating program, but they have far more faith in business leaders to create new jobs. They give mixed reviews to President Obama’s new plan to create jobs for military veterans. 

The number of Americans who believe the federal government should assume  financial responsibility for the long-term unemployed has increased throughout 2011. Most, however, still continue to reject that approach. 

When it comes to job creation and improving the overall economy, voters continue to think tax cuts will work better than government solutions. 

Not surprisingly, 67% of Americans say the state of the economy is causing more stress on their family. That finding is up 10 points from this time last year. 

Meanwhile, fewer voters than ever – 17% - feel the federal government has the consent of the governed. Not that there’s much hope that the ballot box can change anything because fewer voters than ever have confidence in the fairness of elections. Forty-two percent (42%) now say elections are not fair to voters, the highest finding surveying on this question began in 2004. 

Speaking of the ballot box, the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa tonight will begin weeding out some of the hopefuls in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. The straw poll is an early step toward next year’s Iowa Caucus. In a survey taken prior to Thursday night’s debate in Iowa, five candidates are in double digits among likely Republican caucus participants, but many voters are open to changing their mind before caucus day arrives. 

Scott Rasmussen will discuss the GOP debate, our poll findings and the straw poll results on the new Rasmussen Report radio show on WMAL 630AM in Washington and WLS  890AM at 3 pm ET/2 pm CT tomorrow (Sunday). The show also will be streamed online. 

For the fifth week in a row, a generic Republican candidate edges the president in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up. 

On Friday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll found that just 43% of voters at least somewhat approve of Obama’s job performance. That’s the lowest total approval for the president in five months. Fifty-five percent (55%) at least somewhat disapprove. 

Still, while there has been much talk lately about declining enthusiasm for the president on the political left, a review of Rasmussen Reports tracking data for the week ending August 7, 2011 shows that the president still earns an 85% Job Approval rating from liberal Democrats. At the same time, only 67% of conservative Democrats offer their approval. 

Among all voters, the number who consider the Republican agenda in Congress as extreme has risen to its highest level yet, while a plurality continues to view the Democrats’ agenda that way. Forty-nine percent (49%) now describe the agenda of Republicans in Congress as extreme, up six points from a month ago.  Forty-five percent (45%) think the Democratic agenda is extreme, down from a high of 57% last year when Nancy Pelosi was House speaker. 

In the first full-week survey since the president and Congress closed a hard-fought deal to raise the federal debt ceiling, Republicans hold just a two-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The GOP has had leads on the ballot ranging from two to 12 points every week since June 2009. 

At the urging of their Tea Party supporters, congressional Republicans demanded more spending cuts and refused to consider any tax increases in the debt ceiling deal. Several prominent Democrats and their media friends have charged the Tea Party with being economic terrorists during the congressional budget debates, but just 29% of voters agree with that assessment. 

More voters, in fact, still think the average Tea Party member has a better handle on America’s problems than the average member of Congress does, but there’s a sharp difference of opinion between Democrats and Republicans. 

Congress and presidents have been playing the “spending cuts” game for years, but most voters know what they’re really talking about. Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters understand that when Congress mentions future spending cuts, they’re really saying the growth in government spending will be less than planned. Just 19% think it means spending next year will be lower than this year’s. Interestingly, those who are pushing hardest for government spending cuts are the ones who are most aware of what those cuts really mean. 

Two-out-of-three voters (67%) now feel that every federal government program including defense should be looked at for spending cuts. While voters aren’t convinced government spending will actually be cut, the number that thinks spending will increase under Obama is at the lowest level since he took office. 

Perhaps ominously, however, 48% of Americans think that cuts in government spending are at least somewhat likely to lead to violence in the United States. Tax hikes and a crashing stock market are seen as less incendiary in the minds of most Americans. 

The news isn’t much better when Americans turn their attention overseas. Following the deaths of 30 Americans in Afghanistan last weekend, support for bringing home all U.S. troops from Afghanistan has hit its highest level yet. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters want the troops to come home either immediately or within a year. 

Confidence in the course of the War on Terror which surged following the killing of Osama bin Laden continues to fall. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters now say the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror, but that’s down eight points from last month and down 11 points from early May, just after the death of bin Laden. 

Read the rest of the story with links at Rasmussen