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Politico…
Fickle independents
return to Barack Obama
By Alexander Burns
President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats learned at least one
big lesson in the November elections: What the independent voter gives,
the independent voter can also take away.
But now, the same temperamental bloc that threw House Democrats out of
power appear to be in a giving mood again - at least as far as Obama is
concerned.
That unpredictable, cranky group of voters who helped carry the
president into office two years ago before turning against him in
dramatic fashion, may be turning back in Obama’s direction even more
quickly.
A series of national polls released over the last week shows Obama’s
approval rating on the upswing among voters who don’t affiliate with
either political party.
In two polls, Obama’s standing with independents jumped by double
digits. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed him clocking 46 percent
approval among independents - an 11-point increase since December.
A CNN/Opinion Research survey was even more sanguine, showing a
15-point leap for Obama, to 56 percent approval.
A third poll, conducted for CBS and the New York Times, gave the
president a more conservative, 43 percent approval number among
independents. But even that poll showed him in net positive territory.
Just 39 percent of independents said they disapproved of Obama’s
performance, marking a startling reversal since October, when his
disapproval rating was 15 points higher with independents than his
approval rating.
Analysts point to a number of explanations for Obama’s rise, including
his reassuring response to the Tucson shooting, his willingness to cut
deals with the congressional GOP and the presence of a new political
foil for Obama, in the form of emboldened conservative Republicans.
The bigger picture is that Obama seems to be getting at least something
of a second chance with a hugely influential slice of the electorate
that abandoned Democrats in droves during the 2009 and 2010 elections.
Republican pollster David Winston acknowledged that Obama has had a
good run with the political middle lately.
“There are two events that have occurred that are significant and I
think people are trying to think through: He agreed to work with the
Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts and, two, he delivered a good
speech in Tucson,” Winston said.
But Winston emphasized that while independent voters may be in the
political center, they aren’t in the “ideological center,” meaning that
even under the best of circumstances they’ll be a difficult group for
Obama to hang onto.
“Independents are a center-right group,” he said. “That’s why
Republicans have been able to put together majorities and that’s the
challenge to the president.”
Read more at Politico
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