Dayton
Daily News...
Dayton expected to
have slow job growth for next decade
The city is among the top 5 metropolitan areas in the U.S. hurt by the
loss of manufacturing.
By Randy Tucker
Monday, June 20, 2011
The Dayton area could be facing a decade of stagnant job growth,
according to a report that predicts local employment won’t return to
prerecession levels until after 2021.
Dayton is one of only five top U.S. metro area that aren’t expected to
return to peak employment this decade, based on the report released
Monday at the U.S. Conference of Mayors’ 79th annual meeting in
Baltimore.
In addition to Dayton, the
Cleveland, Toledo and Youngs-town areas in Ohio, and Detroit, Mich.,
are expected to suffer through a decade of lost jobs, according to the
report prepared by IHS Global Insight. Of the 363 metro areas measured,
48 fall into the category, the report said.
“They must have a crystal ball,” said Kathy Trautman of Manpower
employment services in Dayton, which tracks the local job market in its
quarterly employment outlook survey.
“There are so many factors contributing to the uncertainty surrounding
the marketplace. I don’t know how you can project out and say we won’t
see any job growth until the next decade.”
Jim Diffley, an IHS economist who worked on the report, said the
forecast was based on current
trends, especially the continued decline in manufacturing activity.
In addition, the latest U.S. Census results that show dramatic
population losses in Ohio, Michigan and other states.
“Ohio happens not to be looking too well in our forecast, but it’s
reflective of long-term conditions in the Midwest where there’s a
dependence on manufacturing,” Diffley said. “Another thing that matters
a lot is the population flow out of places like Ohio and Michigan. You
get a vicious cycle where slow economic activity leads to young people
looking for jobs elsewhere, and that further slows economic activity.”
Almost half of the metro areas not expected to fully recover for at
least 10 years are concentrated in Ohio, Indiana and other Rust Belt
states that rely heavily on manufacturing, which has sustained steep
job losses in recent years. The Dayton metro area, which includes
Montgomery, Miami, Preble and Greene counties, has lost about 42,000
jobs since reaching peak employment in the first quarter of 2005,
according to the survey.
By comparison, the Cincinnati metro area, including Middletown and
Warren and Butler counties, has lost 72,000 jobs since reaching peak
employment in the first quarter of 2008, soon after the recession
began. But the Cincinnati metro area with it’s more diverse economy is
expected to recover those jobs as soon as the fourth quarter next year.
That shows just how staggered the jobs recovery will be, even inside
Ohio’s borders.
For example, the Springfield metro area, which includes Clark and
Champaign counties, isn’t expected to recover the 5,000 jobs it’s lost
since the second quarter of 2006 until the second quarter of 2019.
But IHS economist Diffley was quick to point out that none of the
projections are written in stone. “As with any forecast, going out a
couple of decades is tricky,” he said. “Things will change. Some areas
will pop up and develop new industries that can drive them. We will be
surprised somewhere, whether it be Dayton or somewhere else. I
acknowledge that.”
Read it at the Dayton Daily News
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