Politico...
GOP braces for
Medicare blowback
By Jennifer Haberkorn & John Bresnahan
This week, an off-year special election in Buffalo and a purely
symbolic vote in the Senate might tell Republicans all they need to
know about the mercurial politics of Medicare reform.
First up is New York’s 26th District in a special election Tuesday. If
Democrat Kathy Hochul wins — she is leading by 4 to 6 points in the
latest polls — it not only would be a setback for House Republicans but
would send a message to Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and his key
lieutenants that their Medicare overhaul plan could become a serious
political liability.
And on the Senate floor later this week, Democrats are planning to
force a vote on the 2012 budget proposal offered by House Budget
Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid and other top Democrats want to put Senate Republicans on the
record voting for — or against — the Ryan proposal to turn Medicare
into a voucher program for seniors. Already, a few moderate Republicans
— the latest being Sens. Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Lisa
Murkowski of Alaska — have bailed on it or look ready to jump.
For Democrats, these crystallizing moments would affirm that their
Medicare-centric attacks are working — and that they’re on the popular
side of a major policy issue, maybe for the first time since the rise
of the tea party movement two years ago. For moderate and vulnerable
Republicans, these events have the potential to create a lot of
hand-wringing and second-guessing for a party that’s been on a roll.
“Republicans are getting the worst of both worlds,” Sen. Chuck Schumer
(D-N.Y.) said Monday during a conference call with reporters. “They
want to distance themselves from this vote, but there is no face-saving
way to do so. They have tried to turn themselves into pretzels to
figure out how to deal with this awful plan introduced by the House.”
House Republicans, for their part, are already in pre-spin mode as they
get ready for a media barrage following the loss of the New York seat.
“It’s going to be bad, no question about that,” said a top GOP staffer.
“But it’s not the end of the world; it’s only one seat. There are
unique circumstances in this race, and Democrats have not even offered
a plan to save Medicare. It’s not the end of the world, that’s for
sure.”
But Senate GOP moderates have watched their House colleagues face
campaign ads claiming they want to “end” Medicare because they voted
for it. The “intensity” of voters in the New York special election over
the issue — it’s the No. 1 topic in polls coming out of that race — has
spiked, which has caught the attention of GOP strategists and political
pros nationwide.
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