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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, October 29, 2011 

For many conservatives and Tea Party voters, the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination boils down to “anyone but Romney.” Yet the former Massachusetts governor remains a frontrunner for the nomination, while the various conservative hopefuls rise and fall. 

Romney is still the GOP presidential contender who voters consider most qualified to be president, although he falls short of the number who feel that way about President Obama.   But most GOP voters think all four top hopefuls for their party’s presidential nomination have what it takes, although they’re a little less sure about Herman Cain. 

The Republican numbers tell an interesting story. Cain has surged to challenge Romney in recent weeks as Texas Governor Rick Perry has stumbled. But our latest numbers show that 61% of GOP voters now think Perry is qualified to be president, up from 52% in late September and virtually tying the number who feel that way about Romney. In that same period, however, the number of Republicans who think Cain is qualified to be president as risen only marginally from 49% to 52%. 

But those numbers still don’t translate to all voters at large. Romney is the only Republican who consistently runs even with Obama, running neck-and-neck with the incumbent again this past week.   The two men have been within two points of each other in surveys since mid-September. Frontrunners for the nomination typically run better than other challengers in early general election match ups. 

Scott Rasmussen will talk about the “anyone but Romney” sentiment among some Republicans and how the unsuccessful 2008 hopeful is staying on track for the nomination thus far on tomorrow’s edition of The Rasmussen Report radio program. Catch The Rasmussen Report – and give Scott a call – this Sunday live at 3:06 p.m. Eastern time. It can be heard on WLS 890 AM in Chicago, WMAL 105.9 FM and 630 AM in Washington, D.C. and online everywhere. 

Rasmussen Reports is also beginning to survey the coming Senate races around the country. Former Governor Tommy Thompson is the leading vote getter in our first Election 2012 survey of the race in Wisconsin to replace retiring U.S. Senator Herb Kohl.  Thompson, a Republican, earns 49% support from Likely Voters in the state, while Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, the only major declared Democratic candidate, picks up 42% of the vote. Baldwin runs virtually even with former Congressman Mark Neumann and seven points ahead of Jeff Fitzgerald, speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly. 

Don’t miss our latest Senate and gubernatorial horse race numbers and the most up-to-date public opinion news on politics, business, the economy, lifestyle issues and more. Rasmussen Reports subscribers can read more than 20 exclusive stories each week. It’s just $3.95 a month or $34.95 a year. Check it out with a three-day free trial subscription.  Remember, if it’s in the news, it’s in our polls. 

Herman Cain’s surge to front-runner status prompted his Republican rivals to pile on during their most recent debate and also brought on a lot more media coverage. After taking a very slight lead over the president, Cain now trails the incumbent by six points – 44% to 36% - in their latest matchup. 

Perry made a media splash Tuesday when he unveiled his flat tax proposal, but his numbers against the president are little changed from the week before.   Obama picks up 45% of the vote to Perry’s 38%. Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Perry held a modest lead over the president. The Texan’s faltering debate performances seriously dinged his numbers, and he is now considering foregoing most debates in the future. 

A sizable number of voters want a simpler and fairer tax system but give generally negative reviews to some of the flat tax proposals that have been floated this campaign season.  

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who himself opted out of the most recent Republican debate, trails the president by seven points – 39% to 32% - in their latest matchup.   While Obama’s support against Huntsman is down in the latest poll, the president led him by a similar margin last month. 

The latest look at the Republican Primary race in New Hampshire shows Romney remains the clear front-runner with 41% support.   While support for Romney in the state is relatively unchanged from September, Cain’s support has jumped from four percent (4%) to 17% since then. Perry, who came in second to Romney in New Hampshire with 18% last month, now receives just four percent (4%) of the vote. 

All names aside, however, a generic Republican candidate leads the president in a hypothetical 2012 matchup again this past week.   The generic candidate has led now for over three months. 

But then perceptions of the president’s handling of the economy – still the most important issue as far as voters are concerned – have fallen to a new low.   Only 28% of Likely Voters believe the president is doing a good or excellent job on the economy, while 49% rate his performance in this area as poor. When it comes to national security, the president continues to fare better: 47% give him good or excellent marks for the job he is dong in this area versus 26% who give him a poor rating. 

Polls show a bounce in support for Obama’s policy in Libya following the death of the country’s longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi, but most voters still don’t expect the new Libyan government to become an ally of the United States. 

Obama’s job approval rating as measured by the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to parallel voter sentiments about the economy. Just 18% of voters Strongly Approved of the job the president is doing at one point this past week, the lowest finding of his presidency to date. 

Both the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, which measure daily confidence among the two groups, remain more than 20 points below where they were at the start of the year. Just eight percent (8%) of those in the two groups rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while more than 60% see it as poor. 

The president traveled to several states this past week to pitch portions of his new jobs plan and other government initiatives he believes will boost the economy. But Americans nationwide feel stronger than ever that the government has too much power and money, and very few believe it spends taxpayer money the right way. 

Voters are becoming increasingly skeptical about the level of spending on the military and national security, and they feel more strongly than ever that the United States should remove its troops from Western Europe. 

One of the loudest demands by the Occupy Wall Street protesters is for forgiveness of the nearly $1 trillion worth of student loans, but Americans strongly oppose forgiving that debt. Even as the president talks about easing the burden on those with student loans, Americans are more inclined to think the government should help those who haven’t gone to college instead. 

The Occupy Wall Street protesters have been compared by some with the Tea Party protests that erupted more than two years ago in reaction to Washington’s big government spending plans. Americans are evenly divided in their opinions of those currently protesting against Wall Street but tend to see their own views as more in line with those of the Tea Party. 

Yet despite questions about the size and cost of government, voters draw the line at the radical measures proposed by GOP candidate Ron Paul who calls for the elimination of five Cabinet-level departments to save $1 trillion annually.  A plurality (46%) favors eliminating the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, but nearly as many (42%) are opposed. More voters oppose than favor getting rid of the departments of Education, Commerce, Energy and Interior. Democrats are more strongly opposed to cutting all of the departments than Republicans are. 

As has been the case for over two years now, Republicans remain ahead of Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The GOP extended its lead to eight points – 44% to 36% - for the week ending Sunday, October 23. 

Positive ratings for Congress’ job performance continue to hover near record lows, while the number of voters who feel the national legislators are more interested in their own careers than in helping people matches the all-time high. Democratic congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid remain more unpopular than their GOP counterparts John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, but all four have higher unfavorables than favorables.

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