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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, November 05, 2011 

Herman Cain is beating the odds so far. Despite this week’s media frenzy about sexual harassment allegations against him in the 1990s, Cain says his fundraising is up, and his poll numbers in the Republican presidential race are as good as ever. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary voters – taken Wednesday night after three days of press coverage about the allegations - shows the Georgia businessman with 26% of the vote over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 23%.   Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 14% support, with no other Republican contender reaching double-digits. It is important to note, however, that only 32% of GOP voters nationwide are firmly committed to their current candidate. Most (68%) say it is possible something could come up that causes them to change their minds. 

Cain leads the GOP field in South Carolina with 33% support. Romney is 10 points behind, and Gingrich again is the only other candidate with double-digit support. The survey was conducted on Tuesday night. Of those who are currently certain of their vote, Cain leads Romney by 12. 

Two-thirds of America’s voters now recognize that Cain is the Republican candidate who has been accused of sexual harassment. Voters are evenly divided about the seriousness of the allegations, but most Republicans believe the public airing of the charges suggests Cain is considered a serious threat to win the nomination. 

Scott Rasmussen in an interview with National Public Radio explains why he thinks Cain is still coming on strong among GOP voters. Our latest Cain numbers also will be the chief topic on this week’s edition of The Rasmussen Report on radio. Catch The Rasmussen Report – and give Scott a call – this Sunday live at 3:06 p.m. Eastern time. It can be heard on WLS 890 AM in Chicago, WMAL 105.9 FM and 630 AM in Washington, D.C. and online everywhere. 

Cain earns the same level of support in a matchup with President Obama as he did a week ago. The president picks up 43% of the vote to Cain’s 38%. The latest matchup survey between the two was conducted Sunday and Monday. The sexual harassment allegations against Cain were first reported by The Politico on Sunday night. Support for Cain was a bit softer Monday than they were the day prior.  However, it will take time to determine whether the allegations have any lasting impact on his campaign. 

The president leads Texas Congressman Ron Paul 44% to 35% in their latest hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. 

Romney continues to draw the most support against the president out of all the GOP hopefuls. The two men are essentially tied again this week – Obama 42%, Romney 41% - as they have been since the beginning of the year.  Romney also remains the 2012 White House hopeful regarded by voters as closer to the political mainstream than any of the others. Voters are evenly divided on whether Obama, Cain or Gingrich are in the political mainstream but tend to see Texas Governor Rick Perry’s views as extreme. 

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For nearly four months, a generic Republican candidate has led the president in a hypothetical 2012 matchup.  A GOP candidate now holds a five-point advantage over the incumbent – 47% to 42% - for the week ending Sunday, October 30. 

Rasmussen Reports’ Presidential Tracking Poll monitors daily how voters feel about the president’s job performance. Looking back over all the numbers for October, Obama’s full-month Presidential Approval Index rating fell a point to an all-time low of -22. Aside from the past three months, the president’s approval index rating has stayed between -10 and -17 for the past two years. 

Most voters nationwide still favor repeal of the president’s chief legislative accomplishment, the national health care law, but fewer than half of those who already have health insurance think the law will force a change in their coverage. 

The president is pushing Congress to pass his plan to give $35 billion to state and local governments to prevent layoffs of teachers and first responders such as firemen, policemen and rescue squad workers. But just 22% of Americans think the federal government should give states and localities $35 billion to prevent such layoffs. Nearly three times as many adults (64%) believe that the best way for state and local governments to avoid these layoffs is to cut back on other spending. 

Though 74% of Americans nationwide acknowledge that their state is in a budget crisis, they are evenly divided when it comes to cutting the salaries of state workers. However, a number of state budgets are foundering on the high level of pension benefits owed to unionized public employees, and most Americans would rather see a reduction in those benefits than pay higher taxes to fund them.  

Wisconsin’s Scott Walker was one of the first governors to tackle the issue of public employee benefits in a budget-cutting bill he pushed through earlier this year, prompting months of large-scale union-driven protests. But new polling shows voters in Wisconsin have a slightly improved opinion of the Republican governor. Still, his Democratic opponents plan to launch a recall effort later this month 

As for budget-cutting on the national level, voters have very little confidence that the bipartisan congressional super committee will find a way to significantly reduce the federal deficit and believe overwhelmingly that taxes will be raised on the middle class in whatever deal Congress and the president reach. 

The president and some congressional Democrats are hoping as part of the deficit-cutting deal to end the so-called Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, defining the wealthy as someone who earns $200,000 a year or a couple that earns $250,000 annually. But just 30% of Americans view someone who makes $250,000 a year as wealthy, down seven points from 37% two-and-a-half years ago. In short, you need to earn more these days for your fellow Americans to regard you as wealthy. 

Americans continue to believe they’re overtaxed and that the middle class shoulders a disproportionate share of the tax load. Several Republican presidential hopefuls are proposing major tax reform initiatives, but voters worry about how much money those proposals will generate. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are more concerned that the tax reform proposals will raise too much money for the government, but a plurality (41%) worries more than they won’t produce enough revenue. A sizable 30% are undecided. 

Regardless of how much money it has, most voters feel the federal government has lost touch with the people it represents. Only 20% think the federal government has the consent of the governed. 

Just 18% of Americans now believe the country is better off today than it was five years ago. Only 17% of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation’s current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration. 

The Rasmussen Employment Index, which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market each month, slipped two points in October. It’s up just two points from August’s recent low, down five points from the beginning of 2011 and six points from last October. 

At week’s end, the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, which measure daily confidence among both groups, were down 11 points from the start of the year. 

Republicans remain ahead of Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 30. The GOP has led on the ballot since July 2009. 

The number of Republicans increased by half a percentage point in October, while the number of Democrats decreased by a similar amount. During the month of October, 34.3% of Americans considered themselves to be Republicans, and 33.1% said they were Democrats. For Republicans, the new figure puts their support right in the middle of their monthly numbers for 2011, while for Democrats, the current support is just one-tenth of a percentage point above the lowest level ever recorded in nearly nine years. The number of voters not affiliated with either party was little changed at 32.6% in October. 

Read the rest of the update with links at Rasmussen