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Issue 2 vote to resound nationally, expert says
Both sides are counting on simple messages and deep-pocket supporters. 
October  31, 2011 

COLUMBUS — With just 10 days left before Ohio voters decide the outcome of a referendum on Senate Bill 5, the collective bargaining reform law, supporters of the law are working to convince voters that it is in their best interest while union leaders and opponents of SB 5 are campaigning to keep momentum and voters on their side. 

Senate Bill 5 will appear on the statewide ballot as Issue 2 and is being closely watched across the country ahead of the 2012 presidential election. 

“SB 5 is the No. 1 referendum we are following at the Crystal Ball. It has the most significant national implications because, well, this is Ohio, the super-duper swing state,” said Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Sabato’s “crystal ball” provides political analysis and insight. 

Both sides claim to be running grass-roots campaigns but it appears they are supported by organizations with deep pockets. Building a Better Ohio’s supporter list reads like a business directory while We Are Ohio’s latest finance report shows labor is paying 99 percent of the freight. 

This year, We Are Ohio raised $30.5 million in cash and in-kind contributions, including $5 million from national organized labor groups and a $4.75 million contribution from the Ohio Education Association, which assessed each member $56 for the campaign. 

Meanwhile, Building a Better Ohio raised $7.6 million. While the group voluntarily released what it said was a full list of financial supporters, it did not provide addresses, employers or amounts given so it is impossible for the public to determine who the biggest supporters are. 

More than 50 business groups, including the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, Discount Drug Mart, The Andersons and Eaton Corp., made contributions but the amounts were not disclosed. 

Building a Better Ohio is structured as a non-profit 501(c)4, which is not required to disclose its donors and their contribution amounts. 

Polls show repeal winning 

Donors and Republicans appear to be the only ones supporting the law. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week shows Republicans oppose repeal 59-32 percent but nearly every other demographic group supports killing the bill at the polls. 

The majority of those polled in other demographics — men and women, blacks and whites, union and non-union households, college-educated and those without degrees, Democrats and independents, and households that make more than $100,000 a year and those who make less — support repealing Senate Bill 5. 

Overall, 57 percent of Ohio voters favor repeal. The poll, conducted Oct. 17-23, surveyed 1,668 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percent. 

“Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB 5, the governor and his team can’t be optimistic about the fate of their law,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

Sabato of the Crystal Ball said he doesn’t see any way for the Yes on Issue 2 side to turn it around. 

Another survey conducted recently by the University of Akron Bliss Institute of Applied Politics found 37 percent of voters favor repeal while 25 percent favor keeping the law. 

Both sides focus on parts of bill 

Throughout the campaign, each side has been focused on narrow parts of the bill, which runs more than 140,000 words. 

Building a Better Ohio, a coalition of business groups and Republicans, is driving hard on three items: public employees would have to pay 15 percent of their health care costs and 10 percent of their wages toward their pensions and their pay would be based on performance, rather than qualifications and seniority. 

However, 93.4 percent of Ohio’s 688,000 public workers already pay their full 10 percent pension contribution and state and county workers already pay more than 15 percent toward their health care coverage while township and city employees on average pay 4.9 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively. 

We Are Ohio, a coalition of labor unions and Democrats, is focusing on two general themes: Columbus politicians are trying to tell local folks what to do and the bill would prohibit unions from bargaining over staffing rules, which could lead to unsafe conditions for police, fire and other public workers. 

While unions wouldn’t be allowed to bargain over minimum staffing rules, they would still be allowed to raise their concerns with their bosses. Kasich and other supporters have repeatedly said that Senate Bill 5 will give local officials the tools they need to manage their costs during tough economic times. 

Proponents say that Ohio taxpayers can’t afford to keep passing tax increases to pay for public employees’ generous pay and benefits while workers in the private sector must get by on less. 

But the bill goes way beyond what each side has been highlighting in the campaign. 

Read the rest of this, and other articles, at Dayton Daily News