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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, October 01, 2011 

Despite the media chatter to the contrary, the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination has changed little in surveys over the past week, but a wild card may be lurking in New Jersey.  

One’s in the race and at week’s end one was reportedly contemplating a run, but for now former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are both essentially even with President Obama in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups. 

Romney, who’s been running neck-and-neck with Obama for several weeks, holds a slight 44% to 42% lead over the president now.   Obama wins 44% support, while potential newcomer Christie picks up 43% in their matchup. However, just 26% believe the first-term governor is likely to run for the White House, and only 20% think he should seek the White House. 

And Scott Rasmussen points out, “As Rick Perry has recently demonstrated, it’s easier being on the outside with people begging you to run than it is to actually run a campaign.” 

While  Perry has been widely criticized for his recent debate performance in Florida, that criticism doesn’t seem to have moved the numbers so far when the Texas governor’s matched against the president. Obama still holds a single-digit lead – 44% to 38% - over Perry, the frontrunner in our most recent survey of the GOP primary race. 

Herman Cain is perhaps the chief beneficiary of Perry’s problems, most notably winning a high profile straw poll last weekend in Florida. But the Georgia businessman’s numbers in a general election matchup against the president are also little changed. Obama earns 39% support, while Cain attracts 34%. 

As for another GOP hopeful, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, he now trails the president by 10 points – 44% to 34% - after being in a near tie with Obama a month ago. 

Scott will weigh in on our latest numbers and the potential shuffling of the GOP presidential deck in tomorrow’s edition of The Rasmussen Report radio show. Listen to it live on Sunday at 3:06 pm Eastern/2:06 pm Central on WMAL/630AM in Washington, WLS/890AM in Chicago and online everywhere. 

Out of the top five Republican candidates running for the White House in 2012, Romney is the only one a plurality of all voters (43%) continues to consider qualified to be president. But Republican voters see three of the candidates – Romney, Perry and Cain - as qualified. 

A generic Republican candidate has fallen into a near tie with the president – leading 46% to 43% - in a hypothetical 2012 election matchup for the week ending Sunday, September 25. The Republican has been leading Obama in weekly surveys for nearly three months now. 

But the upcoming election cycle promises a lot more excitement than just the race for the presidency. Thirty-three U.S. Senate seats will be up for grabs, and Democrats have more than twice as many seats at stake as Republicans do. This past week, Rasmussen Reports conducted its first of countless Senate surveys in the months to come, this one focusing on one of the most closely watched 2012 races – the showdown in Virginia. For now, the Virginia Senate race is a virtual tie: Former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine earns 46% support to ex-Republican Senator George Allen’s 45%. 

Don’t miss a single one of these surveys and all the other polling we do on politics, business, the economy, lifestyle issues and more. Effective today, October 1, these articles will be available to subscribers only. Subscriptions are available for $3.95 a month or $34.95 annually. To sign up for a 72-hour free trial of the Rasmussen Reader experience, click here. Remember, if it’s in the news, it’s in our polls. 

Ratings for Congress are up slightly from the record lows of the past two months, but most voters still think it’s doing a poor job. They’re also a bit less convinced that most members of Congress are corrupt. 

Voters continue to dislike the top leaders in Congress, but they also still express more dissatisfaction with the Democratic leaders than their GOP counterparts. 

This helps explain why 71% of Likely U.S. Voters favor establishing term limits for all members of Congress. But only 18% think Congress is even somewhat likely to pass legislation that establishes term limits on people elected to Congress. 

Republicans hold just a two-point advantage over Democrats – 42% to 40% - on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 25. That is the highest level of support for Democrats in nearly three months and ties the narrowest margin between the two parties in the last two years. 

Dissatisfaction with Congress, like continuing unhappiness with the president as reflected in his Job Approval ratings, is tied largely to the sorry state of the U.S. economy. 

At the close of the week, the Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, was just one point above the year-to-date low. Two-thirds of consumers and investors in the country believe the United States is in a recession. 

So what’s Washington’s response? While voters strongly support major cuts in government spending, just 22% think it’s even somewhat likely that the president and congressional Republicans will reach an agreement to significantly cut long-term spending trends before the 2012 election. 

Americans also think tax hikes are more likely than spending cuts in any deficit reduction deal that comes out of Congress and are more convinced than ever that any new tax monies will be spent on new government programs. 

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters are in favor of a balanced budget amendment to put the brakes on government spending, but just 33% say it’s even somewhat likely that such an amendment to the U.S. Constitution will become law in the near future. 

Voters certainly aren’t impressed with what the president and Congress have come up with so far. Consider, for example, that ever since General Motors and Chrysler accepted government bailouts, Ford has been the nation’s most popular auto manufacturer, and new numbers show that that hasn’t changed despite sizable repayments from both bailed-out companies. 

In fact, while federal bailout funding may have prevented GM from going through a normal bankruptcy process, it has come at a significant price in terms of reputation and potential buyers. Fifty percent (50%) of American adults are less likely to buy a GM car because of the bailout, while 51% are more likely to buy from Ford simply because it did not accept a taxpayer-funded bailout. 

Major questions also linger about the $787-billion economic stimulus plan proposed by Obama and passed by Congress early in 2009. Now federal investigators are looking into the questionable financial dealings of solar panel manufacturer Solyndra, a firm with close political ties to the Obama administration and a recipient of a sizable loan guarantee courtesy of the stimulus plan when private investors weren’t interested. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think free market competition is more likely than government subsidies and regulation to help the United States develop alternative sources of energy, and 59% say the government should not provide money for an alternative energy company after private investors refuse to invest in it. 

Most Americans also disagree with the president and many congressional Democrats when it comes to government help for those who can’t afford to make their mortgage payments. Sixty-five percent (65%) say if someone can’t afford to make their payments, they should sell their home and find a less expensive one. Just 22% feel the government should assist them in making their payments. 

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