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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls 
October 24, 2011 

Not much hope and a strong desire for change – it sounds like 2008 all over again. Will Herman Cain ride that wave into the White House like Barack Obama before him? 

Just 15% of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, down 15 points from this time last year.   Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation’s current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration. 

Just three-out-of-five American adults (59%) rate their own lives today as good or excellent. That’s down nine points from 68% in May 2006. 

Homeowners continue to worry about the short- and long-term value of their homes, with just 16% expecting the value of their home to go up this year. One-out-of three U.S. homeowners (34%) continue to say their home is worth less than what they owe on their mortgage. 

Although the government reported a modest increase in housing starts in September, the number of adults nationwide who say now is not a good time to sell a home in their area has reached an all-time high of 80%. 

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures daily consumer confidence, was down 21 points from the first of the year on Friday, with 59% of consumers saying their personal finances are getting worse. Similarly, most investors (54%) think the finances are worsening, according to the Rasmussen Investor Index which also fell at week’s end. 

No wonder then that when it comes to voting decisions, the economy is still far and away the most important issue on voters’ minds. Unlike for much of the Bush years, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and national security are at the bottom of the list of voter concerns regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. 

While President Obama and other Democrats try to align themselves with the growing Occupy Wall Street protest movement, most voters don’t share their enthusiasm for more government intervention in the economy. Instead, voters continue to think the bigger problem is that big business and big government work together against the interests of the rest of us. Scott Rasmussen will explore the disconnect between the so-called Political Class and Mainstream voters on The Rasmussen Report radio program tomorrow. Catch The Rasmussen Report – and give Scott a call – this Sunday live at 3:06 p.m. Eastern time. It can be heard on WLS 890 AM in Chicago, WMAL 105.9 FM and 630 AM in Washington, D.C. and online everywhere. 

Voters are closely divided over the role they want the federal government to play in the current economy, but they remain positive that bailouts are one way they don’t want to go. Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters believe the government bailouts of the auto industry and financial sector were bad for the country. Twenty-six percent (26%) think the bailouts were good for America, and 20% are undecided. But voters are a little more ambivalent when it comes to a role for government in the current economy: 43% now worry that the government will do too much in reacting to the nation’s current economic problems, but slightly more (46%) fear that the government will not respond enough. 

One thing for sure, most voters still want to see the national health care law repealed, and now 58% think it is at least somewhat likely that the unpopular measure will be repealed. That’s the highest level of confidence in repeal since the law was passed by Congress 19 months ago. 

Perhaps the key player on the federal government’s economic team is the Federal Reserve Bank which a growing number of Republican presidential candidates want to abolish or severely restrict. Only 34% of voters share at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the Fed, with just five percent (5%) who have a Very Favorable view of it. But the Political Class strongly disagrees.  Seventy-nine percent (79%) of the Political Class views the Fed favorably, while 57% of Mainstream voters hold an unfavorable opinion of the institution created in 1913 to regulate America’s money supply and oversee the nation’s banks. 

An increasing number of GOP presidential candidates are also now talking about returning the U.S. monetary system to the gold standard, but voters send mixed signals about such a move. Most like the idea, though, when told it would reduce government control of the economy. 

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters also think it’s more important for the government to treat all taxpayers equally than for the tax code to be used to encourage things like home ownership, charitable contributions and industries favored by government policy. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree and believe the government should use the tax code to advance its agenda in certain areas. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided. 

How’s the public unhappiness with the economy – and the government’s response to it - playing out on the political front? The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows little change in Obama’s job approval numbers. A generic Republican candidate continues to lead the president in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Since weekly tracking began in early May, the Republican has earned 43% to 49% support, while the president has picked up 40% to 45% of the vote. The generic candidate has now led Obama for over three months, but the race is closer once the GOP candidate is named. 

Whether Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight 43% to 41% lead over Obama in their latest matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times. 

Romney and the president continue to run virtually even in a Election 2012 matchup as they have for the past several weeks. Following a fiery debate Tuesday night, Texas Governor Rick Perry now trails Obama by eight points – 44% to 36%. Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Perry held a modest lead over the president. 

Reflecting national trends, Cain has now jumped to the front of the Republican pack in Iowa, too. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows Cain out front with 28% support, followed by Romney at 21%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10%. Perry finishes in sixth place, a sharp decline from early September when he was the front-runner both nationally and in Iowa. 

Will the winner of next November’s election have another war on his plate? Most voters are aware that the United States has accused Iran of attempting to assassinate the ambassador from Saudi Arabia in this county, and 55% of voters think it’s at least somewhat likely that the United States will end up in a war with Iran in the next five years or so. However, only 17% think it’s Very Likely. 

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