Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Carolina: Romney 28%, Gingrich 21%, Santorum 16%, Paul 16%
January 14, 2012
Saturday’s South Carolina Republican Primary is expected to thin the
presidential hopefuls, but for now Mitt Romney, winner of both the Iowa
caucuses and last Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, is the man to beat.
numbers out of South Carolina and Florida suggest that may be easier
still holds first place in the South Carolina Primary field, while his
opponents jockey for second.
Massachusetts governor earns 28% support, virtually unchanged from a
but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21%
vote. Support for
former U.S. Senator
Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%,
dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.
Governor Rick Perry, whose continued candidacy likely depends on the
Carolina vote, now captures six percent (6%) support, while former Utah
Governor Jon Huntsman runs last with five percent (5%).
much can change in the closing days before the South Carolina primary,
just 52% who say they are certain of their vote at this time. In Iowa,
surge by Santorum nearly swept him to victory. In New Hampshire, Paul
Huntsman made gains in the final days of the campaign. This suggests
perceived as the most effective tactical alternative to Romney could
last-minute surge in South Carolina as well.
big test for the GOP presidential field is the January 31 primary in
and Romney is currently running away with the race there. He now picks
support with Gingrich a distant second at 19%. Santorum runs third with
the vote. Paul and Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five
(5%) support respectively. Perry runs dead last among primary voters in
Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support.
New Hampshire, our final survey before the actual vote showed Romney
17% and Huntsman 15%. The actual results were Romney 39%, Paul 23% and
17%. Party primaries like New Hampshire where independents also can
notoriously hard to call, and Paul was the biggest recipient of votes
voters not registered as Republicans.
years New Hampshire is invaded by politicians as the presidential
race of one or both parties begins to formally take off. Roughly one-in-three (32%)
of New Hampshire’s
Likely GOP Primary Voters say they have personally met at least one of
candidates this primary season. Six
percent (6%) have met more than three.
voters (18%) nationally like the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire
first in the presidential selection process, and most prefer the idea
regional primaries instead.
Republican candidate continues to run
slightly ahead of President Obama as has been the case nearly every
late May.Romney remains the only named Republican hopeful who has led
president in more than one hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. This
Obama leads Romney by three – 44% to 41%. The two candidates have been
neck-and-neck in regular surveys since January 2011. The former
support has ranged from 38% to 45%, while the president has picked up
46% of the vote.
Republican presidential hopefuls continue to fight it out, Romney is
GOP contender that most voters view as having a chance against Obama.
the first time since early December, Gingrich is within single digits
president – 46% to 38% - in an Election 2012 matchup.
Santorum trails Obama by a similar 46%
in their latest hypothetical contest.
had strong finishes in Iowa and New
Hampshire, his support remains little changed nationally in his latest
with the president. Obama leads him 43% to 37%.
Paul at a
debate last Saturday night in New Hampshire refused to rule out a third
run for the presidency if he fails to win the Republican nomination.
there’s minimal support (6%) for a third party candidate among
voters even if their favorite candidate is not the nominee. If Paul
the Republican nomination, however, 22% of GOP voters who support him
plan to vote third party, a finding that is paralleled in our latest
South Carolina and Florida.
blame the Tea Party, Scott Rasmussen says in his new syndicated column. “The conventional wisdom
suggests that Tea
Party supporters have a “my way or the highway” attitude and
Republicans just want a winner, but the data shows that the opposite is
he writes in “Tea Party Mitt?”.
than ever dislike the Tea Party, and a sizable number thinks the grass
movement will hurt Republicans in this year’s elections. But most GOP
don’t agree and still see the Tea Party as good for them in November.
Nevertheless, as far as all voters are concerned, the Tea Party is more
potentially toxic to the GOP than the Occupy Wall Street movement is
that movement as liberal, and most still believe the president is to
of them ideologically. Just 27% feel Obama has about the same
as they do. Fifty-five percent (55%) say Obama is more liberal than
while 11% believe he’s more conservative. Pluralities of voters also
to believe that the congressional agendas of both major parties are
reviews for all four top congressional leaders are at their highest
three years, although voters continue to regard the Democratic leaders,
Pelosi and Harry Reid, more negatively than their GOP counterparts,
Boehner and Mitch McConnell. Republicans
continue to hold a small lead over Democrats on the weekly Generic
Congressional Ballot, as they have for two-and-a-half years now.
remains the number one issue on voters’ minds, and perceptions of the
president’s handling of economic issues have improved slightly. Thirty-seven percent (37%)
now rate the way
Obama is dealing with the economy as good or excellent, his highest
since July. But
even more (43%) still
give the president poor marks in this area. Since the fall of 2009,
negatives in the area of the economy have generally exceeded his
fact, now blame President Bush only slightly more than Obama for the
bad economy. It’s the narrowest gap between the two in nearly 18 months.
in recent weeks have been sending increasingly mixed signals about the
Concern about inflation remains high but appears to be easing somewhat
Americans show more confidence in the Federal Reserve Board to keep it
control. Still, a sizable majority expects to pay more for groceries in
overwhelmingly believe that they will be paying more for gas six months
now, and most worry that increasing tensions with Iran will prompt a
prices at the pump.
Americans (51%) continue to lack confidence in the stability of U.S.
Since February 2009, those lacking confidence in the system have ranged
46% to 57%. By contrast, in September 2008 just prior to the Wall
meltdown, 68% of adults were confident in the banking system.
Investor confidence as measured by the
Rasmussen Consumer Index reached its highest level in nearly a year on
Ten percent (10%) of consumers rate the U.S. economy as good or
do 13% of investors. But
a majority of
both consumers (57%) and investors (50%) still give economic conditions
country poor marks.