Columbus Dispatch...
Obstacles await Obama despite GOP foibles  
March 16, 2012 

WASHINGTON — Even as Republicans have damaged themselves with a bitterly divisive presidential primary, President Barack Obama must overcome a series of formidable obstacles and voter worries on the economy, gasoline prices and health care to win a second term. 

Obama, who along with British Prime Minister David Cameron watched an NCAA tournament basketball game last night at the University of Dayton, will campaign in the fall with the economy gradually recovering from the 2008 collapse of the financial system. 

But it is unclear whether the rebound will be robust enough for voters to believe the recession Obama inherited in 2009 is a thing of the past. And as gasoline prices soar beyond $4 a gallon, analysts say Obama must convince voters that he is doing everything possible to curb the rapid price increase. 

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that only 45 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the presidency. In a USA Today poll of 12 key states, including Ohio, 53 percent of registered voters oppose the new health-care law, regarded as Obama’s signature legislative achievement. 

“The biggest advantage he has is a better economy,” said James Ruvolo of Toledo, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “It is better, but there is a perception that it continues to get better. 

“The question is whether gas prices will influence people’s optimism on the economy. If the gas prices cause people to feel less optimistic than they’ve been feeling, that’s a big problem for Obama.” 

Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant in Virginia, said, “The primary obstacle the president faces is that he could not win a referendum on his record today. 

“It’s pretty clear that the Obama campaign plan is to so thoroughly trash the Republican nominee that he becomes an unacceptable alternative,” Ayres said. “It’s fighting from a position from weakness, but it may be the only choice they have.” 

In many ways, Obama faces the most difficult re-election challenge since 1992, when President George H.W. Bush lost to Democrat Bill Clinton, because voters doubted that the economy was recovering. But Obama is considered to be a superior campaigner to the elder Bush, and his aides boast he can present a solid record of economic accomplishments. 

Against nearly unanimous opposition from Republicans — including all four presidential contenders — Obama pushed for an $80 billion bailout of General Motors and Chrysler. Today, those companies — along with Ford — are reaping large profits and hiring thousands of workers in Ohio and Michigan. 

To highlight the automotive comeback, Vice President Joe Biden will be in Toledo on Thursday, prompting Ruvolo to say Obama and Biden “ought to take victory lap after victory lap.” 

“The contrast between Republicans like Mitt Romney and President Obama could not be starker,’’ said Frank Benenati, a spokesman for Obama’s campaign. “While the president made the decision to save the auto industry and its 1.4 million jobs, the GOP wanted it to go bankrupt.” 

In addition, the nation’s unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent with the Labor Department reporting that the economy generated 227,000 jobs last month. Stocks have rebounded from the 2008 collapse, with the Dow Jones eclipsing the 13,000 mark yesterday. 

“With the economy ... it’s people’s perception of it,” said Danielle Vinson, chairwoman of the Political Science Department at Furman University in South Carolina. “It’s really going to depend in September or October if it’s still going in the right direction and whether people perceive it’s going in the right direction fast enough.” 

Obama also must overcome an electoral map that is not as favorable to him as it was four years ago when he carried Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New York. All those states have lost electoral votes to the South and Southwest. 

That puts additional pressure on Obama to retain a group of states that before 2008 tended to lean Republican — Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Many analysts doubt the president can win Virginia, North Carolina or any Southern state. 

“He may be able to pull it off in Virginia,” said Vinson, “given what the Republicans have done in the past few weeks to irk independent women with the whole contraceptive debate, which may motivate turnout with those pivotal independent voters.” 

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts favored to win the GOP nomination, at times appears awkward as he tries to connect with his audience. While campaigning through Mississippi last week, Romney prompted some dismay among supporters when he said, “Mornin’ y’all” and professed a love of a “biscuit and some cheesy grits.” 

“He can hit a wrong note faster than anyone I have ever seen on the presidential stage,” said William Carrick, a Democratic consultant in Los Angeles. “I spent 32 years in South Carolina, and I never heard the phrase ‘cheesy grits.’  ” 

In addition, analysts warn that the Republicans have to convince voters they have a serious plan for the economy. David Winston, a Republican pollster in Washington, said voters are “willing to listen” to a Republican “because of the past four years. But just because the past four years have been bad doesn’t mean it’s an automatic ticket for someone else.” 

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