Cincinnati Enquirer...
Ohio’s workforce aging, shrinking
Shortage of labor likely, experts warn
By Randy Tucker and Mike Boyer 

March 28, 2012 

Demographic shifts have left Ohio with one of the oldest work forces in the country and too few younger workers to replace aging baby boomers as they retire. 

Many analysts predict labor shortages and lost productivity as employers struggle to find people with the knowledge and skills to replace their most experienced workers, especially in skilled trades. 

“The recession has made everyone focus on job shortages, but we should be focusing on labor shortages,” says Suzanne Kunkle, director of Miami University’s Scripps Gerontology Center. “At some point, the math just isn’t going to work out.” 

The long-term implications are especially pronounced in Ohio, where the population of prime working-age adults (25-44) has declined faster than most other states. 

Six Ohio metropolitan areas are among the 10 U.S. cities with the biggest drops in that age group over the past decade, according to a recent analysis of Census data by the Brookings Institution. The Cincinnati-Middletown Metropolitan Statistical Area – which includes five Ohio counties, seven Kentucky counties and three in Indiana – ranked 7th on the list, losing 15 percent of its under-45 population from 2000 to 2010. 

In Ohio, that loss ranked Greater Cincinnati fourth-worst in Ohio, trailing the Cleveland area, which lost 25 percent, Youngstown, which lost 24 percent, and Dayton, which lost 22 percent. 

The dramatic loss of younger workers has left Ohio with one of the highest concentrations of seniors outside of such retirement havens as Florida and Arizona. About 53 percent of Ohio’s working-age adults are now 45-64, compared with 44 percent in 2000. The result, Kunkle says, is that Ohio soon will be faced with a limited supply of workers to keep up with demand for goods and services from retired boomers, who are living longer and healthier lives. 

“We’ve traditionally lost the younger workers, age 18 to 29,” she says. “Now, we’re losing more of the middle-age workers than ever before. That means we’re going to need our older workers longer.” 

The latest downturn has postponed retirement for many boomers, who continue to work to recoup lost wages and retirement savings. As the economy improves, however, workers who have delayed retirement will begin to drop out of the work force at the same time as those workers just reaching retirement age, says Tom Maher, president of Manpower of Dayton Inc., a franchise of the placement firm Manpower Inc. 

“The real issue of (labor shortages) has been put on hold for a couple of years because of the terrible economy,” Maher says. “But I think we’re going to see a pretty good exodus from the workplace here in the next few years.” 

Maher says many of his clients are faced not only with the challenge of finding qualified younger workers to fill positions vacated by retiring employees, they’re also struggling to retain the institutional knowledge that those retiring workers take with them. 

“The knowledge transfer can be difficult,” he says. “If you have somebody that’s been on the job for 25 or 30 years, how do you take the knowledge they’ve gained over all that time and transfer it to another person?” 

The labor gap has caused Greater Cincinnati companies to turn more aggressively to programs such as apprenticeship training and student internships to develop the next generation of workers. 

“We have to go out and proactively drive worker education and begin espousing the benefits of manufacturing careers,” says Dennis Smith, CEO of Milacron Inc. in Batavia. 

Earlier this year, Milacron launched a co-op program for high school students to expose them to career opportunities at the manufacturer of plastic processing equipment. It’s also turned to Facebook and Twitter feeds to promote hiring. 

Other companies such as Hebron-based machine tool builder MAG IAS have recruited new employees to apprenticeships that combine on-the-job training and classroom work. 

For small companies like Clifty Engineering and Tool Co., a tool-and-die maker in rural Madison, Ind., training apprenticeships are the primary vehicle for hires, says Ray Combs, president. “You’ve got to do it to attract new people,” he said. 

Some like TSS Technologies, a Woodlawn-based contract manufacturer, are actively recruiting retired machinists to help train new workers. 

Not all companies are so forward-looking. 

A recent survey by international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that more than 60 percent of companies are seeing signs of an upcoming shortage of talent. Only 32 percent are actively doing anything about it, though, such as rethinking their recruitment strategies or offering incentives for older workers to stay on as trainers and mentors, according to the survey. 

CEO John Challenger thinks many companies have become complacent after years of warnings about pending labor shortages that haven’t yet occurred. “We know, however, it’s coming. It’s a real risk for companies that are unprepared.” 

Some companies have yet to take the first step of assessing future staffing needs based on current demographics of their work forces, Challenger says. 

“People should be looking at their work forces department-by-department or function-by-function to look at where they’re vulnerable,” he says. “If you look in a particular department and you see a preponderance of people getting closer to retirement, taking the time to address the issue and not let it go too far is just crucial.” 

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