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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, May 12, 2012 

President Obama ended the week with media praise loud in his ears over his endorsement of gay marriage, while his Republican challenger Mitt Romney crossed the 50% threshold against the president for the first time in Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll. 

It’s a long way to Election Day, but Romney’s lead was a reminder that this contest is still all about the economy. Just 37% of Likely Voters nationwide give the president good or excellent marks for his handling of economic issues, down from a two-year high of 42% in March. Forty-eight percent (48%) say he’s doing a poor job in this area. 

Confidence that the U.S. economy will be stronger five years from now has fallen to its lowest level in three years of regular tracking, while confidence that it will get better in a year’s time remains largely unchanged. 

If the next couple of government jobs reports are as anemic as the one just over a week ago, the president’s reelection bid could be in real trouble, Scott Rasmussen explains in a recent radio update. [Scott is now doing three Rasmussen Report radio updates every weekday, syndicated nationally by the WOR Radio Network. Check out this week’s radio updates here.] 

Still,  the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, while down slightly, suggest that confidence in both groups was not significantly shaken by the jobs report. Americans are more positive that the stock market will fully recover from the 2008 meltdown within the next three years. 

Working Americans are also more optimistic than they’ve been in years about their future employment opportunities, with 48% who think their next job will be better than their current one. However, it’s worth noting that there’s wide gap between younger workers and older ones. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of those 40 and under expect their next job to be better, compared to just 29% of those ages 40 to 64. 

With the unemployment rate continuing to hover just above 8%, roughly half of Americans still believe it’s possible for anyone with a desire to work to find a job. But they aren’t so sure just anyone can work hard and get rich. 

Only 11% of American workers expect to be earning less money a year from now, the lowest level of pessimism in regular tracking since November 2009. Forty-two percent (42%) predict they’ll be earning more money a year from today, down just a point from March’s all-time high. 

Looking across the Atlantic, a sizable number of Americans remain concerned that the financially struggling European economies will significantly hurt economic conditions here at home. But they overwhelmingly reject the idea that the United States should help bailout France, Greece and some of the others. 

Despite their ongoing economic struggles, France and Greece aren’t too popular with a lot of Americans anyway. 

New leaders in those countries, elected last weekend, have signaled that austerity efforts there may be coming to an end, but as far as Americans are concerned, that’s a move in the wrong direction. Sixty-one percent (61%) believe cuts in government spending would do more to improve the economic and financial situation in France and Greece than increases in that spending.  Just 20% think more government spending is the better way to go. 

Speaking of spending, two-out-of-three voters here are fed up with the current policies of their own government. A majority feels neither Republicans nor Democrats know what is best for the people. 

More voters than ever (68%) would vote to replace the entire Congress rather than keep it. After all, just 32% are at least somewhat confident their representatives in Congress are truly representing their best interests. Helping to drive this criticism is the belief by 61% of voters that no matter how bad things get, Congress can always find a way to make it worse. 

Republican voters chose to replace one member of Congress this past week, longtime Indiana Senator Richard Lugar who was a favorite in Washington circles but viewed as out of touch back home. His defeat in a primary election was a reminder to the Political Class of how unhappy Mainstream voters are with its performance, Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest syndicated column. “Ultimately,” he writes, “the relationship between voters and politicians has gone sour because they are focused on different goals. Voters are interested in a society that works, while politicians are focused on making government work.” 

The divide between voters and the Political Class is the central theme of  Scott’s New York Times bestselling book, T he People’s Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt . He contends that voters are ready to support the kind of long-term thoughtful changes needed to balance the budget and eliminate the federal debt. The only thing standing in the way is a Political Class committed to defending the status quo. 

That battle is next being fought out in Wisconsin where GOP Governor Scott Walker’s effort to take on the state’s powerful public employee unions as a budget-cutting move has led to a June 5 recall election. Walker holds a five-point lead over his Democratic challenger Tom Barrett – 50% to 45% - in the recall race. Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee, won the Democratic nomination in a Tuesday primary. That makes the recall election a rematch of the 2010 race which Walker won with 52% of the vote. 

Former Governor Tommy Thompson remains the leader in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, while two other Republican contenders continue to struggle against Democratic hopeful Tammy Baldwin. The  president still leads Romney in a head-to-head matchup in Wisconsin but by a much narrower 49% to 45% margin. 

Romney has called Massachusetts home and even served as governor there, but he now trails Obama by the widest margin yet – 56% to 35% - in an Election 2012 matchup in the Bay State. Despite the ongoing controversy over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren’s past claims of Native American heritage in professional circles, she and Republican incumbent Scott Brown remain tied in Massachusetts’ U.S. Senate race with 45% of the vote each. 

Most voters nationwide continue to believe that politics in the nation’s capital will grow more partisan during the next year, but the number who feels that way ties the lowest measured in over a year. Voters also view congressional Republicans as acting more bipartisan than they have in years. 

Republicans hold a three-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the third week in a row. 

Texas Congressman Ron Paul appears more interested in influencing the direction of the Republican Party than in running as an independent presidential candidate. But perhaps Democrats should be careful what they wish for: Even if Romney’s remaining GOP challenger should run as a third party candidate, new Rasmussen Reports surveying finds Romney the winner of a three-way race. 

It’s close to a 50-50 nation when voters are asked if the views of Obama and Romney are mainstream or extreme. Fifty percent (50%) describe the president’s views as mainstream, while 51% say the same of Romney’s views. Forty percent (40%) think it’s more accurate to describe Obama’s views as extreme, while 35% describe Romney’s views that way. 

With pressure growing for withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, America’s longest-running war, voters continue to believe strongly in more limited use of the U.S. military overseas. Sixty-nine percent (69%) think the United States should not commit forces overseas unless it is vital to U.S. national security. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that conservatives are more hawkish than liberals, conservative voters are more likely than liberal voters to favor a policy limiting military interventions. 

Read the rest of the article at Rasmussen