Cleveland Plain Dealer
Ohio's U.S. Senate race draws millions in outside money; will it work?
Saturday, October 06, 2012
By Stephen Koff 

WASHINGTON, D.C. - There's a lot you can do with $19 million. 

Some shrewd people in politics and business thought the best use for the money was to tell Ohioans what kind of lawmaker they have in first-term U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown. The $19 million –- the amount that outside groups spent on TV and radio ads slamming the Democrat from 2011 through the end of September -- came from conservative super PACs and other third-party groups linked to corporations and Republican strategist Karl Rove, some using money from undisclosed donors. 

Collectively, they have spent more against Brown than on anyone else in Congress. 

Why so much money and national attention for an incumbent who not long ago was regarded as unbeatable? Political observers say the effort was not simply about trying to weaken Brown but also to weaken President Barack Obama and give Republicans a better chance at winning Ohio in the 2012 presidential race. 

The groups started spending extraordinarily early -- last year, even before Josh Mandel, Brown's Republican challenger, was presenting himself to voters. Hitting Brown for his votes on health care reform, the stimulus and clean-air regulations, the ads were like the early punches in a match from the movie "Rocky," said political analyst Norman J. Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank. 

They were thrown to soften up Brown early, in anticipation of a knockout this November. Democrats control 53 seats in the 100-member Senate, and if conservative groups could weaken Brown and just a few other incumbents, they could give Senate control to the Republicans. 

Yet that strategy is at risk of failing. As of late August, the outside spending had weakened Brown and vaulted Mandel to a tie in two statewide Ohio polls, but a slew of newer polls suggest that Brown is not as vulnerable as he appeared around Labor Day. 

That is not to say the race is over. Mandel says his internal polls are encouraging. He told supporters Tuesday that "we're in a dead heat battle." 

But other dynamics are at play, including Mandel's own ability to sway voters and the skills of the Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, analysts say. For now, at least, Ornstein says he has little doubt "that Sherrod Brown has withstood these early body blows and is back up on top." 

'Blanket barrage' part of broader strategy 

The spending against Brown was never really about Mandel, the first-term Ohio treasurer, although his youth, conservatism and Jewish religion helped attract money from Jewish Republicans and other donors to the outside groups, Ornstein says. In 2011, Mandel likes to tell people, he lagged Brown by 17 points in the polls and pundits wrote off his challenge as inconsequential… 

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