Law Street Media
Crime in America: Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities Over 200,000
Kevin Rizzo
November 25, 2013

In the United States, there is a disproportionately high level of violent crime in densely populated areas; however, crime levels in similar-size cities vary to a wide degree. This calls us to investigate what factors make certain cities safer or more dangerous than others.

To properly compare and analyze these cities, we group them into large and small categories. A large city is considered to be one that has a population greater than 200,000 people. We hen further adjust for population by ranking each city by its violent crime rate, which is the measure of how many violent crimes occurred per 100,000 people in 2012.

Violent crime is defined by the total number of murders, aggravated assaults, robberies, and forcible rapes during the year. Although murder is included in the aggregate violent crime rate, we also report the murder rate separately for each city. For additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology, click here.

Here are the 10 Most Dangerous Large Cities in the United States based on the FBI’s most recent Uniform Crime Report statistics, released September 16, 2013:

1. DETROIT, MICH.

Detroit holds its place atop our list of the Most Dangerous Large Cities, and is second only to Flint, Mich. in the overall rankings, as it continues to suffer from a long term decline in population and employment. Detroit’s $18 billion bankruptcy filing in July was the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Although the city’s unemployment rate has dropped from its peak of 18.2 percent in July 2009, it remains well above the national level. In the 1950s, Detroit was the fifth-largest city in the United States with nearly 2 million residents, but now fewer than half as many people call it home. The city has an estimated 78,000 abandoned homes spread across 140 square miles — a vast expanse that contributes to Detroit’s infamous 58-minute police response time. The city ended the year with a total of 386 murders and 15,009 violent crimes in 2012.

Violent Crime Rate: 2122.91 per 100,000 people

Population: 707,096

Murder Rate: 54.59 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:275

Median Household Income: $27,862

Unemployment Rate: 10.5 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #1

2. OAKLAND, CALIF.

Historically, crime has been a problem for Oakland, but in 2012 the number of reported violent crimes reached a decade high point. Despite its high crime rate, the city’s officer-population-ratio reveals that Oakland has relatively fewer sworn officers than many of the major cities on this list. Recently, the city re-implemented a gang violence reduction plan that had been effective in the past for Oakland, as well as for other California cities. The plan known as Operation Ceasefire emphasizes a problem-oriented policing approach to crime hot spots. The focus is on gun trafficking and gang violence. Operation Ceasefire marks a big change for the Oakland police department, which hopes that prioritizing the most urgent emergency calls will significantly reduce local crime.

Violent Crime Rate: 1993.31 per 100,000 people

Population: 399,487

Murder Rate: 31.79 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:638

Median Household Income: $51,144

Unemployment Rate: 8.1 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #3

3. ST. LOUIS, MO.

Although St. Louis moved down in the rankings from its number two spot last year, it has consistently been ranked as one of the most dangerous cities over the past seven years. St. Louis recently encountered significant budgeting pressures due to its expanding public pension costs. As a result, the city’s police department was forced to cut back on the number of its patrolling officers. St. Louis is also set to lose a federal grant at the end of this year that covered the cost of 20 officers, causing Police Chief Sam Dotson to fight hard for budget increases. Dotson also emphasizes “hot-spot” policing, which involves increasing patrols in dangerous areas during times when crimes are most likely to occur. Criminologist Richard Rosenfeld argues that the reason St. Louis is ranked so high is, in part, a matter of geography. If suburban crime statistics were included, the crime rate would be diluted.

Violent Crime Rate: 1,776.46 per 100,000 people

Population: 318,667

Murder Rate: 35.46 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:241

Median Household Income: $34,402

Unemployment Rate: 7.6 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #2

4. MEMPHIS, TENN.

For the second year in a row, Memphis holds its position as the fourth most dangerous large city in America, and was ranked sixth overall in 2012. In addition to Memphis’ rank, Tennessee claimed the number one spot in the ranking of the most dangerous states in terms of violent crime per 100,000 people.

According to a Gallup poll last year, only 55 percent of the Memphis population responded that they feel safe in the city, the lowest percentage among the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas. With an unemployment rate of 11.1 percent and a major proportion of the city living under the poverty line, Memphis is ranked number one as the nation’s poorest city by its collected census data. The city ran a $26.5 million budget deficit, and projections indicate that this figure could rise to as high as $36.5 million if the current tax rate remains the same. With all the economic disadvantages Memphis is facing it is no surprise that it remains high in the rankings of most dangerous large cities.

Violent Crime Rate: 1,750. 28 per 100,000 people

Population: 657,436

Murder Rate: 20.23 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:272

Median Household Income: $37,072

Unemployment Rate: 9.0 Percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #4

5. STOCKTON, CALIF.

Stockton, like Detroit, is another city that recently filed for bankruptcy after running up a debt of $900 million to the California Retirement System Fund. Because the city’s main focus has been on getting its debt paid off, Stockton has been unable to devote more resources to curtailing its high level of violent crime. Pension promises are on the verge of collapse, leading to dramatic budget cuts that have gutted essential public services such as the fire and police departments. Although Stockton’s unemployment rate has decreased slightly over the past two years, it remains very high at 15.2 percent. With 71 murders in 2012 and a median household income of $45,606, the city ranks number five on this list.

Violent Crime Rate: 1547.95 per 100,000 people

Population: 299,195

Murder Rate: 23.74 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:904

Median Household Income: $47,365

Unemployment Rate: 15.2 Percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #8

Read the rest of the Top 10 Most Dangerous cities in America at Law Sreet Media