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Harvest Weather
Outlook
From Sam Custer
C.O.R.N. Newsletter: Author, Jim Noel
After a first half of September which was 5-10 degrees below average,
the second half of September will average 5-10 degrees above average
making September in the end a near average month but marked by
significant differences in the month. Temperatures the week of
September 19-25 will run 10-15 degrees above average with no risk of
frost.
Rainfall will remain limited in most areas for the rest of September as
well. Some rainfall will occur Tuesday September 19 through Wednesday
September 20. Rainfall will average less than a tenth of an inch in the
southeast half of the state to 0.10 to 0.50 inches in the northwest
half with isolated higher totals. After September 20, the next chance
for rain does not come up until around Sept. 26 or 27.
October Outlook
Temperatures are likely to relax closer to normal in October after the
warm late September. Rainfall is also expected to increase some
especially in the second half of October. We expected October rainfall
to be near or slightly below average which is close to 2 inches for the
month on average.
Tropical Outlook
Tropical activity looks to stay east of Ohio in the coming weeks. In
fact, with storms well east it is enhancing high pressure and drier
conditions over the region locally. Historically, storms tend to shift
into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico once we get to October and
November. We will have to wait and see if some of that moisture would
make its way back into our region.
Frost/Freeze Outlook
There is really no risk of frost and freeze conditions for the rest of
September. At times we do see historically late September frosts in
Ohio but none are expected this year.
We have been talking in recent months that data suggest a normal to
later than normal frost/freeze in Ohio and that looks still to be the
case. Sometime in October we will likely see our first widespread frost
and possible freeze and typically that arrives the first 2-3 weeks of
October but chances are growing it will be in the middle to end of the
month of October.
La Nina Watch issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Confidence is still low to moderate but the NOAA Climate Prediction
Center has issued a La Nina watch for cooler equatorial Pacific Ocean
water this winter.
This could lead to a winter and early next spring that is wetter than
normal with temperatures starting winter warmer than normal and turning
normal to colder than normal. It is too early to tell, but those are
some of the early indications.
Two week rainfall outlook
The outlook for the next two weeks is normal to below normal rainfall
for early harvest in the eastern corn, soybean and wheat areas with
much above normal rainfall in western areas as the NOAA/NWS/OHRFC
graphic shows.
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