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The University of California at Berkeley campus. | Jeff Chiu/AP Photo
Politico
'We're on the edge of the precipice': How the pandemic could shatter college dreams
Some high school seniors are dropping their first-choice schools in
favor of colleges that are cheaper. Others are taking a year off so
they can help bail out their families.
By Bianca Quilantan
04/12/2020
The pandemic and the nation's brutal economic collapse are combining to
crush the college hopes of low-income and first-generation students.
Some high school seniors are dropping their first-choice schools in
favor of colleges that are cheaper and closer to home, early surveys
have found. Others are thinking about going part-time, or taking a gap
year so they can work and bail out families whose breadwinners are
suddenly out of work. Those who work with low-income students worry
freshmen from poor families who were sent home this semester may never
return and high school seniors won't get the hands-on help they need
with their financial aid applications.
The effects of these decisions could ripple across not just campuses
but the U.S. for years to come. Students could be stuck in lower-paying
jobs for the rest of their lives, lacking the financial boost brought
by a four-year college degree. Requests for additional financial aid
will ramp up, and colleges with their own financial struggles may not
be able to meet the demand. Colleges could see the widening of an
already existing gap between low- and high-income students entering
their doors, and many are trying to make it easier for applicants whose
lives are in chaos.
“We're on the edge of the precipice,” said Bridgette Davis, a
researcher and doctoral candidate at the University of Chicago who is
studying 31 low-income students navigating their first year of college.
Many have told Davis they are now less confident that they will
successfully finish their current college semester, let alone reenroll
in the fall.
Congress tried to respond by stipulating in the economic rescue package
that $14 billion in direct aid to colleges and universities must be
distributed to colleges based on their enrollment of Pell Grant
recipients, whose families are low-income. In addition, half of the
money must go to emergency financial aid to students, and Education
Secretary Betsy DeVos said Thursday that $6.2 billion will be sent out
"immediately." The stimulus law also requires the department to suspend
all payments on federally held student loans without interest or
penalties through Sept. 30.
But higher education groups have said that amount is insufficient and
are pressing for billions of dollars more in future emergency aid
packages.
In the interim, the law also provides checks from the government for
individuals and families, with additional money for dependents under
18. Most college-age dependents are older than 18, though, and students
themselves won’t be getting a check if their families claimed them.
Difficulties could hit millions of students — about 6.8 million
low-income college students received Pell Grants in 2018-19, according
to The College Board. Pell Grants, unlike loans, don't have to be
repaid and are aimed at people with the greatest financial need. The
maximum is $6,345 for the 2020-21 year.
Early national surveys of high school seniors are showing those who
initially were bound for four-year colleges changing their first-choice
schools for something less expensive. Some of those surveyed say they
are thinking of giving up on going to college in the fall entirely.
The financial stress for families was cited. About 63 percent of
students said they would still enroll in college but were worried about
whether they could attend the school of their choice, while 17 percent
said their plans have changed, according to the education consultants
Art and Science Group.
Students with changed plans said in the survey that they would take a
gap year, enroll part time at a four-year institution, go to community
college, work full time or enroll in a certificate program. Some still
didn't know what their plans would be. Other surveys have also found
similar conclusions.
Finishing college is already a coin flip for most first-time, full-time
low-income students. After six years, only 49 percent of first-time,
full-time Pell Grant recipients earned a bachelor’s degree at the
institution where they started, according to a report from Third Way, a
center-left-leaning think tank.
Davis said her low-income students who’ve been sent home from college because of the pandemic face additional obstacles.
“Their lives have abruptly changed from just starting to really
be able to manage their freedom and focus on their first year of
college,” she said. “They were just getting good at it, and now they’ve
been sent home and they are back in the environment where they have
extra responsibilities like helping younger siblings with their
homework, taking care of aging grandparents in their home, running
errands because they're the healthiest person in their family or
they’re having to pick up jobs.”
On the K-12 level, schools are to remain shuttered in most states due
to the Trump administration’s extension of social distancing guidelines
through April 30. That means high school seniors now lack the in-person
help they traditionally get from high school counselors to meet
critical admissions deadlines and requirements.
"The disruption is absolutely concerning,” said Carrie Warick, director
of policy and advocacy for the National College Attainment Network, and
“the longer they're out of school, the more dire the impact is going to
be.”
Some colleges are trying to ease the way for incoming freshmen. More
than 300 institutions across the nation have pushed back their college
decision dates to beyond the traditional May 1 deadline for their
incoming classes, and some have even waived standardized test score
requirements already for the next class.
The University of California system, Vassar, all public universities in
Oregon, and others have announced that they won’t require freshman
applicants applying for fall 2021 to submit SAT or ACT scores to be
considered for admission.
The National Association for College Admission Counseling has compiled
a database of these changes at more than 950 colleges across the
country, but Warick said she doesn’t know if students will even find
out.
“That's the sort of information where, if students aren't in school and
they're focused very much on day-to-day living, they're not going to be
planning ahead and keeping up to date with moving admission deadlines,
or FAFSA verification paperwork, or things that usually require
multiple in-person advising sessions,” she said.
The immediate concern for low-income students headed to college this
fall could be coming up with the cash for enrollment deposits. But more
pressing is assistance with the FAFSA as students’ parents lose jobs
and the family economic situation shifts.
“The biggest concern ... is that you might have students who weren't
previously low income, who now are,” Warick said. “Not only are they
facing that loss of income, but if they've already done their FAFSA,
they now need to contact the financial aid office to let them know
there's been a change and ask for an updated financial aid package.”
National College Attainment Network organizations, which have about
2,500 practitioners working directly with underrepresented students,
have been urgently working to pivot to digital advising. But it’s
mostly uncharted territory for those who advise on high school campuses
and rely on seeing their students face to face.
There’s also concern about internet access for their students to
receive digital advising, apply for scholarships, meet admissions
deadlines or do schoolwork.
Some programs, though, have had success. Matriculate, a partner of
Bloomberg Philanthropies’ CollegePoint, is a college advising program
in which undergraduate students serve as virtual advisers to a handful
of high-achieving, low-income high school students.
“High school counselors are dealing with so much, and now they’re
having to do that virtually,” said Madeline Kerner, Matriculate CEO.
“The situation is just diminishing the support available to our
students, and high school counselors are doing the best they can,” she
said.
Advisers have been helping students understand their financial aid
offers, talking about the on-campus college experience, since students
can’t visit them, and providing emotional support.
But the program has also seen some turbulence as its student advisers
faced their own difficulties transitioning from college to living at
home and taking classes online.
Daniel Kim, a Matriculate student adviser, is a junior at Princeton
University who was living on campus when the school decided to shut
down its dorms because of the coronavirus.
“I typically try to meet with my students once a week or so, but you
know, I had to pack up and everything, so it's definitely tricky to
make time,” he said.
The students he advises have found it hard to get in touch with
university admissions offices due to jammed phone lines. And because
K-12 schools are closed, they’ve been struggling to get critical
admissions paperwork like hard-copy transcripts.
Attending school close to home could also mean more limited
postsecondary education options, said Tamara Hiler, Third Way’s
education director.
“We know already that there are these education deserts,” she said.
“Given the risk of the financial instability that is likely going to
lead to additional school closures in the coming year or in the coming
years, I'm concerned that there's going to be even fewer options for
low-income students when it comes to making a postsecondary choice.”
Schools like minority serving institutions and historically black
colleges and universities that largely serve these students are already
fragile when it comes to enrollment and it's possible some could close,
said Tiffany Jones, senior director of higher education policy at The
Education Trust.
MacMurray College, which has a large population of students who receive
Pell Grants, announced it would permanently shutter come May. The
college had faced declining enrollments and rising competitive costs,
but cited the coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic disruption as
a “recent factor” that complicated its financial condition.
If they don’t shutter, institutions under fiscal strain could find it
challenging to meet increased demands for financial aid and “be less
likely to want to enroll lower-income students who are going to be more
dependent on financial aid,” Hiler said.
For students who drop out of college, Hiler said their decision could
have longer-term effects on the economy. Over time, those students may
have lower incomes and have to rely on safety net programs, or could be
more likely to default on their student loans, she said.
Defaults were a problem even before the pandemic. “Students who start
higher education and don't finish have some of the worst outcomes,”
Jones said. “Students who start college and don't finish are more
likely to default on their loans than many other groups. And in some
cases, depending on the quality of the program, they can end up worse
off than if they hadn’t gone to college at all.”
Following the last recession, most of the new jobs that were created
required a secondary degree or credential, Jones said, and it's likely
that low-income students will likely want to still enroll in higher
education in the fall because of the looming recession. From 2006 to
2011, total college enrollment grew by 3 million, according to the U.S.
Census Bureau.
“All of the data today suggests that the economy could be still
struggling at that point and they will desire to go,” Jones said. “So
the question is, will higher ed be out of reach for these students at
the time that they're going to need it the most?”
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