Over the cliff… or the Grover?
By Jim Surber 

The U.S. debt ceiling and its surrounding debate was becoming passé, so federal leaders created the “fiscal cliff.” Last year, not wanting to let trivial matters such as the national debt and deficit interfere with their re-election campaigns; the lawmakers and President set a bomb with a time-delayed fuse that has almost reached the explosive charge. Simply put, this is a potentially destructive combination of tax hikes on just about everyone and spending cuts on just about every government agency all set to hit January 1, 2013. 

Throughout the recent campaign, the President promised to increase taxes on wealthy Americans, while his challenger promised to close existing tax loopholes. As solutions, both proposals were fantasies, but nobody would dare suggest that either potential emperor had no clothes. 

Liberals have wanted tax increases on the wealthiest Americans to help balance the budget while conservatives make a case for deep cuts in programs for the poor and a widening of the tax base to raise revenue without raising taxes. 

But elections have consequences, and we now hear drumbeats that Republicans have reversed their stance and are considering revenue as part of a deficit-reduction deal. They are probably also eagerly waiting to see if Democrats are willing to cut expenditures. 

This potential compromise would be responsible government, something none of us have seen for quite a few years. 

But another obstacle looms ahead of a potential tough, but necessary deal; and that is a pledge. 

Since 1986, a lobbying group called Americans For Tax Reform led by one Grover Norquist, has secured signatures from 238 U.S. House members and 41 U.S. Senators on a pledge of only two promises: 

“I will oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates for individuals and/or businesses 

I will oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates”. 

There is certainly not much wiggle-room here. 

One might ask that if elected officials make a pledge to a lobbyist, is this not treason because they have also taken an oath on the U.S. Constitution to govern for the common good? Can they serve two masters? 

They were elected by the people and for the people, have sworn allegiance to our country, and then have signed a pledge that supersedes all of that. Is one who signs a pledge to a lobbyist, defining what they will or will not do in the service of the people they represent, fit to hold elected office? 

On the other hand, it is noteworthy that one man and a two-statement pledge have so effectively divided our country and neutered our House and Senate. 

The pledge signers, by their own actions, find themselves painted into a very difficult corner. If they agree to more taxes, they will break the long-standing pledge which has served them well in eliminating primary opposition. They will incur the wrath of Grover the lobbyist and his well-funded machine, risking defeat in the next election. If they continue to stonewall on the tax issue, all Americans will face big tax hikes and spending cuts in a very few weeks. It seems like the classic “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” situation. 

Of the $19.8 million spent by Grover the lobbyist in the last two elections, only 1.5% was spent against Republicans. That could change in 2014 for those who break the pledge. With the large number of safe GOP house seats that were created by gerrymandering, a well-funded primary challenge is what most members of Congress fear most. 

But more importantly, we are careening toward this deadline just as we have toward every other deadline over the past few years. The underlying problem is much bigger: We've lived beyond our means as a country for far too long and racked up decades of budget deficits, and a $16.3 trillion debt. We've made Social Security and Medicare promises that we simply can't afford to keep, and we have consistently avoided tackling those thorny issues under both Democratic and Republican administrations. 

When you hear our political leaders complaining about the national debt, isn’t it like pigeons complaining about bird droppings? 

We can all see how our country got into this mess. It is much more difficult to foresee bipartisan, common sense solutions that not only will get spending under control, but also allow us to continue making investments to strengthen our economy. 

And that is where it comes back to Grover the lobbyist, his pledge, and those who have signed it. 

It will soon be revealed if the pledge will be disregarded. If broken, it would seem that at least informal “divorce” proceedings should be held. 

As we wait to see if the Mayan calendar has indeed predicted the end of the world this December 21st, we should more eagerly await the infinitely more certain event that many Congressmen will allow us to go “over the cliff,” if they do not go “over Grover.”